TRADESETUP

December 4, 2018

The Morning Jumpstart

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OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT (8:10am AEDT)-

  • SPI200 (Sep) overnight futures down 10 pts to 5761
  • SP500 up 27.55 pts to 2787.72
  • NASDAQ up 110.98 pts to 7441.51
  • Dow Jones up 287.97 pts to 25,826.43
  • FTSE100 up 82.17 pts to 7062.41
  • DAX30 up 208.22 pts to 11465.46
  • GOLD futures (Feb) up $10.40 to $1236.40 an ounce
  • COPPER futures (Comex Mar) up $0.0040 to $2.7930 a pound
  • OIL futures (Nymex Jan) up $2.27 to $53.20 a barrel
  • CRB Index up 1.77 pts at 183.51
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.7353
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1347
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.2730
  • USDJPY trading at 113.6200

 

The US had a strong open and managed to hold onto the gains as buyers continued to support higher levels. Trade issues have been a major sticking point for investors for most of the year and now they may be seeing the start of a solution. Global growth may start to lift out of the doldrums as tariffs may be eased. There are still a lot of sticky issues to work through between the two nations before they can agree on a trading relationship going forward. The DOW was up 1.13% while the broader SP500 was up 1.00% and the Nasdaq also ended up 1.51%. In Europe shares played catchup to rally strong into the close with the German DAX up over 1.8% and FTSE up 1.18%. Buyers were happy with the weekend G20 results and news on trade.

The US Fed Reserve continued to support a move towards slow but steady interest rate increases and said that they will not be swayed by market swings and will be data driven over time. Bond markets are still concerned namely with the spread between the 2 and 10 year Bonds which has narrowed to levels similar to 2007 before the start of a deep recession.

The USD was lower as traders sold the safe haven currency to move into riskier assets. Major crosses that have been tied to the China/US trade news such as the NZD, CAD and AUD, all gained. The EUR was stronger while the GBP edged lower and the AUD, which is seen as a China trade barometer, opened stronger yesterday morning and held onto gains through the European and US sessions.

Gold was higher having a good night as the USD waned. Oil opened strong Monday morning and managed to hold onto gains through the US session thanks to the trade truce and expected supply cuts. Copper opened stronger but then faded through the US session back down towards Saturday mornings close.

Cryptocurrencies hit lower again as Bitcoin falls below the $4000 level currently trading at $3888.1 down 8.50%. Ethereum is trading at $107.68 down 9.30% while Ripple is currently at $0.34812 down 6.94%.

The ASX200 reversed the losses from Friday plus more as traders dived back into the action on news that the US and China have called a ceasefire on tariffs. The ASX200 closed up 104 points at 5771.2. Advancing stocks outnumbered falling ones by 769 to 417 and 316 ended unchanged. Energy, Resources and Miners were the winners for the day helping the index erase Fridays losses. We may see more of the same today with strength into commodity prices. Traders will be awaiting the RBA interest rate announcement today at 2:30pm and for further direction on interest rates from the RBA.

The ASX200 is expected to open down 5 points but this may not last long as buyers look for a potential Xmas rally on the back of stronger commodities and a lift in global sentiment.

 

ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEST) –

AUD  Current Account  11:30am

AUD  RBA Rate Statement and Cash Rate  2:30pm

GBP  BOE Gov Carney Speaks  8:15am

USD  FOMC Member Williams Speaks  2am

GBP  MPC Member Vlieghe Speaks  5am

 

SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH –

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