TRADESETUP

May 16, 2019

The Morning Jumpstart

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OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT (as at 7am AEST)

  • SPI200 (Mar) overnight futures up 13 pts to 6300
  • SP500 up 16.55 pts to 2850.96
  • NASDAQ up 87.65 pts to 7822.15
  • Dow Jones up 115.97 pts to 25,648.02
  • FTSE100 up 55.35 pts to 7296.95
  • DAX30 up 107.95 pts to 12,099.57
  • GOLD futures US Session (June) up $0.70 to $1297.00 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US Session (Comex July) up $0.0220 to $2.7470 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex June) up $0.34 to $62.12 a barrel
  • CRB Index up 0.66 points to 180.66
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.6929
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1204
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.2846
  • USDJPY trading at 109.5500

The US market backed up with another positive session on reports that Trump would hold off on tariffs for imported cars and parts along with news that trade talks will resume soon in China. Traders started the session in sell mode after data out showed that retail sales and industrial production unexpectedly fell highlighting concerns of a slowing economy. With earnings almost ended, 75.2% have bettered expectations with earnings growth at 1.2% from initial expectations for down 2%. The DOW closed up another 0.45% while the broader SP500 was up 0.58% and the Nasdaq also closed up 1.14%. In Europe, major indexes were higher driven by auto shares on the hope that tariffs will be delayed up to six months; a formal announcement is due Saturday. Europe was earlier weighed down over concerns for Italy before markets surged into the close on tariff news.

The USD was initially stronger but was sold lower after tariff news hit the market. The currency fought back to end the session in positive territory with minor gains. The AUD continued to come under pressure on rate cut expectations but did find some buying support on weakness in the USD after the news. Traders will be watching the employment data out today to build the case on interest rates. The GBP under performed other major pairs as the bears took control on Brexit concerns. The Pound managed a minor bounce on the tariff news after a major selloff earlier in the session as traders position themselves for further negativity on Brexit and a possible hard exit. The USDJPY saw a choppy session with a spike down to the low 109’s before bouncing back on the news to minimise the losses.

Gold is holding onto recent gains to hover below the 1300 zone with Aussie Gold doing better as it holds minor higher lows. Oil added some more gains to rally on the back of positive tariff news and expectations that the US and China may come to an agreement soon or at least not see further escalation in the tariff ‘tit for tat’. Copper followed the same move as prices found support and spiked on trade and tariff news. Buyers are still tentative to dive into the action as any escalation in trade war will see the bears dive back in to push prices lower.

Cryptocurrencies continued higher with another strong session overnight as Bitcoin currently trades at $8123.8 up 4.54%. Ethereum is trading at $237.20 up 13.57% while Ripple is at $0.43301 up 9.38%.

The ASX200 opened relatively flat and then rallied from around 11:30am into the close to end the session up 44.3 points to 6284.2 yesterday. Sectors were generally up across the board with Energy and Resources leading the charge. Traders jumped into the index on the anticipation that the RBA may cut interest rates after wage price index data came out less than expected. They will now be closely watching the employment data out today for signs the market will hold on to the gains. Advancing stocks outnumbered falling ones by 674 to 444 and 408 ended unchanged.

The ASX200 is expected to open up 15 points after a nice push higher on the SPI200 through the US session.

ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEST)

AUD Employment Change and Unemployment Rate 11:30am

AUD RBA Assist Gov Bullock Speaks 12:45pm

EUR German Buba President Weidmann Speaks 6:15pm

EUR Italian Trade Balance 7pm

EUR Trade Balance 7pm

USD Building Permits and Unemployment Claims 10:30pm

CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks 1:15am

USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks 2:15am

GBP MPC Member Haskel Speaks 3:30am

SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH

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