The Morning Jumpstart

OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT (as at 7am AEST)

  • SPI200 (Jun) overnight futures up 28 pts to 6414
  • SP500 up 17.34 pts to 2843.49
  • NASDAQ up 40.08 pts to 7615.56
  • Dow Jones up 181.09 pts to 25,720.66
  • FTSE100 up 39.63 pts to 7259.85
  • DAX30 down 27.67 pts to 11,953.14
  • GOLD futures US Session (August) up $5.90 to $1339.50 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US Session (Comex July) up $0.0240 to $2.6470 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex July) up $1.50 to $53.18 a barrel
  • CRB Index up 1.53 pts to 173.87
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.6976
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1277
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.2695
  • USDJPY trading at 108.3600

US stock Indexes were again higher overnight being buoyed by hopes of Mexico and the US coming to an agreement. The market was again supported by potential interest rate cuts although capped by ongoing trade tensions with China. Further threats from Trump on raising tariffs on China after the G20 had traders cautious. The DOW closed up 0.71% while the broader SP500 was up 0.61% and the Nasdaq also closed up 0.53%. In Europe, Indexes were mixed as the FTSE100 ended higher while the DAX closed lower. The ECB refrained on rate cuts and committed to leaving rates steady into the first half of 2020. Bond yields across the board edged higher as traders had factored in a rate cut from the ECB while the US bond market is still anticipating up to three cuts by year end.

Even as Indexes moved higher, investors continued to move risk out of the share market. The previous week, data showed US based equity funds saw $10B of cash withdrawals which sought shelter in safer haven bond funds. Treasury bond funds attracted more than $6.77 billion of inflows in the week ended Wednesday. Trade data out of the US showed that Imports and Exports tumbled as US trade with the rest of the world is slowing. Odds are now increasing that the economy is going to take a big hit as the data is lagging and not taking into account more recent trade war news.

The USD moved lower after the ECB kept rates on hold and as potential rate cuts continued to pressure the currency. The Euro rallied 80 pips after the ECB announcement but then settled back 25 pips off the highs into the US close. The GBP also rallied after the news although sellers pressured price back down to where it started prior as Brexit continues to cap gains. Resistance is forming on the pair around 1.2748 bringing in sellers. The AUD struggled to push back up to highs around 0.7005 from Wednesday and saw some sellers step in on the rally around 0.6990. The USDJPY found support around 108.10 as buyers stepped in to move price up into the close.

Gold again moved higher as the USD fell on interest rate news. Aussie gold also continued its march higher to pressure bears. Oil managed to bounce back as sellers race to lock in gains on news that Mexico tariffs may be delayed. Copper also rallied to stem the tide of recent selling pressure on trade news on Mexico.

Cryptocurrencies were mixed overnight as Bitcoin edges lower trading at $7700.4 down 0.23%. Ethereum is trading at $241.86 down 0.75% while Ripple is at $0.41895 up 5.20%.

The ASX200 opened stronger yesterday only to drift lower into the close again to end below Wednesdays highs. The Index ended up only 24.5 points to 6383 as Utilities and Consumer Discretionary sectors supported the move up. Aussie Trade Balance data came in slightly below expectations at $4.87B which led the AUDUSD higher into the day session close. Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 611 to 563 and 388 ended unchanged.

The ASX200 is expected to open up 30 points after another move up in the US. We may see the ASX200 open high and then again drift lower into the close as traders remain cautious ahead of the long weekend and the US jobs numbers out tonight.

ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEST)

AUD Home Loans 11:30am

EUR German Industrial Production 4:45pm

CAD Employment Change and Unemployment Rate 10:30pm

USD Non-farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate 10:30pm

USD Final Wholesale Inventories 12am

SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH