TRADESETUP

June 13, 2019

The Morning Jumpstart

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OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT (as at 7am AEST)

  • SPI200 (Jun) overnight futures up 4 pts to 6554
  • SP500 down 5.88 pts to 2879.84
  • NASDAQ down 29.85 pts to 7792.72
  • Dow Jones down 43.68 pts to 26,004.83
  • FTSE100 down 30.83 pts to 7367.62
  • DAX30 down 40.13 pts to 12,115.68
  • GOLD futures US Session (August) up $5.80 to $1337.00 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US Session (Comex July) down $0.0220 to $2.6490 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex July) down $2.17 to $51.10 a barrel
  • CRB Index down 1.62 pts to 173.24
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.6929
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1289
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.2688
  • USDJPY trading at 108.5000

US stock Indexes edged lower as talk of a rate cut could not outweigh concern over the economic impact of escalating trade tensions. Data out overnight showed moderate inflation, building a case for a rate cut but traders are not willing to add further risk at current levels and actually happy to lock in some gains. Trump expressed optimism about the prospects for a trade deal with China in a few weeks although continued to threaten with tariffs. The DOW closed down 0.17% while the broader SP500 was down 0.20% and the Nasdaq ended down 0.38%. In Europe, share Indexes were lower on concern that trade battles could spread to Europe and Japan as Trump accused Europe on twitter of devaluing the Euro which puts the US at a disadvantage.

US Bond yields were lower after CPI showed a contraction in May which is at odds with PPI data the previous night. Still, traders are factoring in a rate cut in July and then up to two further cuts for the year.

The USD Index moved higher as trade tensions remain in focus. This may be against the flow with a rate cut although the yield for the dollar is better than Euro which is expected to continue as the ECB flags concerns and their own rate cuts due to slowing global growth. The Euro was traded lower off the highs as a sustained rally against the USD continues to struggle. The GBP was also knocked lower on dollar strength and further no-deal brexit concern. The AUD was hit hard to continue the move lower as commodity indexes came under fire although Iron Ore prices are still strong. The USDJPY rebounded off lows after the CPI data release as the USD strengthened. Price is still looking heavy and may find a safe haven bid if stocks indexes come under.

Gold moved higher as concern increases over global growth as equity markets fail to rally in hopes for interest rate cuts. Safe haven buyers jumped in as stock indexes look tentative at current levels. Oil was hit hard to end down over 4% on the futures after an unexpected rise in US inventories. The longer the trade war continues the less likely that demand will increase and traders tire of buying for a bounce. Copper continued lower on trade war pressure. We expect to see further choppy action as buyers search for a solid support zone. If overnight lows can hold we may see a short term rally to squeeze recent sellers.

Cryptocurrencies were generally higher across the board as Bitcoin pushes back above the 8000 level and is currently trading at $8079.9 up 2.23%. Ethereum is trading at $254.44 up 4.22% while Ripple is at $0.39602 up 0.94%.

The ASX200 open strong yesterday to be up around 38 points early in the session only to give it all back into the close. The index finished down 2.6 points to 6543.7 as the Healthcare and Financials sectors weighed on the market. The Gold, Materials and Metals and Mining sectors were strong but could not stem the tide of selling. Aussie consumer sentiment data was lower following gains for the previous few months while Asian Indexes were mixed as China traded lower. Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 622 to 596 and 388 ended unchanged.

The ASX200 is expected to open relatively flat as the SPI200 was contained in a tight range overnight.

ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEST)

AUD Inflation Expectations 11am

AUD Employment Change and Unemployment Rate 11:30am

EUR German Final CPI 4pm

CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment and Libor Rate 5:30pm

CHF SNB Press Conference 6pm

EUR Industrial Production 7pm

ALL OPEC-JMMC Meetings Tentative

USD Import Prices and Unemployment Claims 10:30pm

SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH

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