The Morning Jumpstart

OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT

  • SPI200 (Sep) overnight futures up 6 pts to 6661
  • SP500 up 8.71 pts to 2926.46
  • NASDAQ up 33.44 pts to 7987.32
  • Dow Jones up 38.46 pts to 26,504.00
  • FTSE100 down 39.50 pts to 7403.54
  • DAX30 down 23.22 pts to 12,308.53
  • GOLD futures US Session (August) up $13.60 to $1364.30 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US Session (Comex Sept) down $0.0070 to $2.6960 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex July) up $0.24 to $54.14 a barrel
  • CRB Index down 0.66 pts to 175.43
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.6883
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1230
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.2644
  • USDJPY trading at 108.0900

In the US, stocks continued to move higher as the US Fed soothes the bulls fears by talking up rate cuts. The Fed said that they will ‘act as appropriate’ to sustain economic expansion and signaled up to half a percentage point cut by the end of 2019. As expected they left rates on hold overnight but did drop the ‘patient’ stance on rates. The DOW closed up 0.15% while the broader SP500 was up 0.30% and the Nasdaq ended up 0.42%. In Europe, major Indexes ended slightly lower as they went into a holding pattern ahead of the US rate announcement and Fed statement.

The Fed achieved exactly what was needed by the market in their statement on interest rates and did not harm the major Indexes as they hover just below all time highs. They did highlight that rate cuts were necessary but still made no commitment to cuts next month. A rate cut is still reliant on data and Trade news, which could change the landscape fast.

The USD Index moved lower into and after the Fed rate statement as traders started to position themselves for three rate cuts by years end. The yields on short dated US bonds fell as traders piled into the action. The Euro was trending higher during the Asian and European sessions and then got an extra kick higher after the news to push through previous lower highs. We may see the Euro gain some traction for a push back up to 1.1340 highs in the near term. The GBP also managed a rally on USD weakness ahead of the BOE rate announcement, at 9pm AEST tonight, where rates are expected to remain at 0.75%. The AUD spiked after the rate news although gave up a lot of the gains into the close as commodity indexes edged lower. The USDJPY headed south on the rate statement as the USD came under pressure pushing price down to key support around 107.850.

Gold had another big night but only got going after the Fed talked up interest rate cuts. Aussie gold rallied close to $20 on the Fed statement to take out previous highs to move closer to the $2000 mark. Oil again got a lift from a weaker USD and expectations that demand will increase if trade news takes a turn for the positive. Copper was heading lower into the Fed release and then managed to make back most of the losses on weakness into the USD.

Cryptocurrencies were relatively contained overnight while generally edging higher. Bitcoin is currently trading at $9148.3 up 0.27% while Ethereum is at $267.87 up 1.55% and Ripple is trading at $0.43267 up 0.82%.

The ASX200 had a big session yesterday as price broke up through 6587 highs on positive sentiment for trade. The index was driven higher evenly across the board with the energy sector leading the way. Gold was the only lagging sector which finished in the red as the Index closed up 78.1 points to 6648.1. Rising stocks outnumbered declining ones by 753 to 527 and 374 ended unchanged. Asian markets were also up strong during the day on hopes that an end to the trade war maybe in sight.

The ASX200 is expected to open up 10/15 points after the SPI200 closed on its highs for the overnight session.

Note the ASX200 will have an extended open today as the SPI200 futures contract rolls over from June to September.

ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEST)

NZD GDP 8:45am

AUD RBA Bulletin 11:30am

AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks 12:35pm

JPY Monetary Policy Statement and BOJ Policy Rate Tentative

JPY Press Conference Tentative

GBP Retail Sales 6:30pm

All OPEC-JMMC Meetings Tentative

GBP Official Bank Rate and Monetary Policy Summary 9pm

USD Philly Fed Manufacturning Index, Current Account and Unemployment Claims 10:30pm

GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks 6am

SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH