TRADESETUP

August 2, 2019

The Morning Jumpstart

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OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT (as at 7am AEST)

  • SPI200 (Sep) overnight futures down 15 pts to 6712
  • SP500 down 26.82 pts to 2953.56
  • NASDAQ down 64.30 pts to 8111.12
  • Dow Jones down 280.85 pts to 26,583.42
  • FTSE100 down 1.91 pts to 7584.87
  • DAX30 up 64.11 pts to 12,253.15
  • GOLD futures US Session (December) up $19.70 to $1457.50 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US Session (Comex Sept) down $0.0460 to $2.6200 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Sep) down $4.09 to $54.49 a barrel
  • CRB Index down 5.72 pts to 172.80
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.6804
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1084
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.2135
  • USDJPY trading at 107.2600
  • USD Index (ICE Sept) at 98.140 down 0.118

US Indexes started the session well as they clawed back some losses from the previous session only to take a u-turn as investors turned into sellers on a Tweet from Trump on tariffs. Trump seems to be trying to bully the Fed after they hinted that no more rate cuts are needed. Trump tweeted that he would impose another 10% on $300 billion in Chinese imports. This drew immediate criticism from retailing groups saying that it will raise prices further and hurt jobs. The DOW closed down another 1.05% while the broader SP500 was down 0.90% and the Nasdaq also ended down 0.79%. In Europe, markets were slightly higher as the US got off to a good start. We expect to see some pain tonight into Europe as markets were closed before the Tweet that sent markets reeling. The DAX futures fell 200 points during the US session after the tweet.

Trade remarks threw a lot of uncertainty into the markets and traders do not like uncertainty. Oil was slammed on the tariff tweet, emerging markets were hit and the USD fell as traders will be eyeing further cuts due to added pressure on growth from additional tariffs. Traders will be focused on what China says in retaliation to the proposed tariffs. The tweet shows that the trade war is far from over and could easily escalate at any time.

The USD moved lower against major currency pairs as further rate cuts came back into focus on expectations that tariffs will put a drag in economic growth. If the trade war escalates then we would expect to see further pressure on the USD and US Bond yields. The Euro continuing to find weakness and threatening a break into new lows when price turned on a dime and rallied after the tweet. The GBP moved up off the lows as price was also supported by a USD fall although remains under pressure from Brexit and earlier weaker than expected manufacturing data. The AUD came under pressure after the tweet as the currency was hurt by falling commodity prices. The USDJPY fell in a hole as the USD moved lower. Previous buyers on dollar strength had to bail on the uncertain outlook for the markets.

Gold took a sudden turn higher to make back the previous sessions losses and more. Safe haven buyers fell over themselves chasing the price higher as the outlook suddenly became uncertain and the USD weakened. Oil was thumped down over $4 as the future demand outlook was hit hard on tariff news. Oil prices were on the mend on drawdowns in US inventories and global supply easing but the already shaky global demand oulook would be expected to ease further therefore putting continued pressure on Oil prices. Copper also came under fire on the news as demand for the commodity also fell apart.

Cryptocurrencies managed to hold on to the gains from the previous session and continue higher as Bitcoin is currently trading at $10402.2 up 3.75%. Ethereum is trading at $216.09 up 0.71% while Ripple is at $0.31593 down 0.38%.

The ASX200 opened weaker yesterday to follow on from a weak overnight session in the US. The index held the losses into the close and ended the day down 23.7 points to 6788.9. The Gold sector bare far felt the most pain ending down over 4%. Further behind was the Resources, Materials and Metals and Mining sectors all being hurt by strength in the USD and realization that the US is doing better then originally thought. Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 695 to 541 and 351 ended unchanged.

The ASX200 is expected to open down 10/15 points as the SPI200 fell over into the US close on the back of Trumps tweet.

ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEST)

AUD Retail Sales and PPI Data 11:30am

EUR Spanish Unemployment Change 5pm

GBP Construction PMI 6:30pm

EUR PPI and Retail Sales 7pm

CAD Trade Balance 10:30pm

USD Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate 10:30pm

SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH

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