The Morning Jumpstart

OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT (as at 7am AEST)

  • SPI200 (Sep) overnight futures down 8 pts to 6633
  • SP500 down 0.28 pts to 2978.43
  • NASDAQ down 15.64 pts to 8087.44
  • Dow Jones up 38.05 pts to 26835.51
  • FTSE100 down 46.53 pts to 7235.81
  • DAX30 up 34.37 pts to 12,226.10
  • GOLD futures US Session (December) down $8.60 to $1506.90 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US Session (Comex Dec) down $0.0070 to $2.6270 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Oct) up $1.52 to $58.04 a barrel
  • CRB Index up 1.69 pts to 174.31
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.6862
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1049
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.2352
  • USDJPY trading at 107.2500
  • USD Index (ICE Sept) trading at 98.287 down 0.075

In the US, Indexes ended the session flat as traders await news from the Fed on interest rates and were more cautious as prices trade back up near highs. Buyers have been supported by expectations for global stimulus from Central Banks as the ECB is set to introduce new stimulus measures at its meeting on Thursday. The question now is ‘how much’ stimulus and whether traders have ‘over factored’ into the market. The DOW closed up 0.14% while the broader SP500 was down slightly by 0.01% and the Nasdaq ended down 0.19%. In Europe, Indexes finished mixed as the export heavy FTSE index was dragged lower by a stronger Pound while the German DAX index ended higher with modest gains. The DAX was supported by news that Germany was considering the creation of a “shadow budget” that would enable them to boost public investment beyond the restrictions of constitutional debt rules.

In negative news, the head of the US regulator the SEC, issued a warning over market risks including rising corporate debt, a U.K. withdrawal from the EU and the transition away from a key lending rate. He mentioned that in the US, corporate debt stands at almost $10 Trillion, almost 50% of GDP, and they are numbers that should definitely attract everyones attention. He also mentioned that the implications for a no-deal Brexit can not be understated and that companies should prepare for the potential fallout.

The USD continued to push lower during the European session and was again bought up at the start of US trading. The EURO was supported by expectations that Germany may boost fiscal stimulus with its ‘shadow budget’ although gains were capped as traders expect a new wave of stimulus when the ECB meet Thursday. The GBP saw further buying support price as expectations are now that Britain will not crash out of the EU. Also providing support for the Pound was data that showed the economy picked up more than expected for July. The AUD continued its move up being supported by the potential for trade war tensions to ease. We expect to see buyers march higher until that view changes but do expect the occasional washout of buyers to fuel the move up. The USDJPY moved up as the Dollar found strength in the US session to move up off the lows from European trade.

Gold edged lower as longer term buyers continue to lock away some gains with Equities holding onto highs and traders remain in a risk on mood. Oil gained to punch through resistance at 57.50. Price now looks constructive for a sustained move higher as long as trade tensions continue to ease. Any news on increased tensions may see price tip over and put the squeeze back on the sellers. Copper continued to edge lower as price was not helped by the news on the cooling Chinese economy over the weekend. Expectations for demand remain the key driver so any news that is buoyant for demand will have the buyers back into the action.

Cryptocurrencies were relatively unchanged overnight as buyers and sellers wait it out. Bitcoin is currently trading at $10255.5 down 1.07% while Ethereum is at $179.80 down 0.23% and Ripple is holding around $0.25805 down 0.52%.

The ASX200 had a relatively boring session yesterday as a 20 point spike lower on the open was quickly bought up but then the action flatlined in the afternoon grind. In the end the Index ended up 0.7 points to 6648 with the Emerging Companies, Financials and Utilities sectors in the green while the Gold sector was again under fire. Data out showed an unexpected lift in new home loans but the market response was uneventful. Rising stocks outnumbered declining ones by 651 to 562 and 361 ended unchanged.

The ASX200 is expected to open down 10/15 points as the SPI200 fell away from the days highs overnight.

ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEST)

AUD NAB Business Confidence 11:30am

CNY CPI and PPI Data 11:30am

GBP Average Earnings Index, Claimant Count and Unemployment Rate 6:30pm

CNY New Loans Data 10th-15th

SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH