The Morning Jumpstart

OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT (as at 7:30am AEDT)

  • SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures up 24 pts to 6564
  • SP500 down 9.75 pts to 2942.26
  • NASDAQ down 26.18 pts to 7956.29
  • Dow Jones down 95.70 pts to 26,478.02
  • FTSE100 up 42.50 pts to 7197.88
  • DAX30 up 84.62 pts to 12,097.43
  • GOLD futures US Session (December) down $14.90 to $1498.00 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US Session (Comex Dec) up $0.010 to $2.5730 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Nov) up $0.08 to $52.89 a barrel
  • CRB Index down 0.39 pts to 173.10
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.6731
  • EURUSD trading at 1.0972
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.2297
  • USDJPY trading at 107.2900
  • USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) trading at 98.675 up 0.187

US Stock Indexes gave up some of the recent rally from the end of last week as buyers locked away gains ahead of what is expected to be a tense US/China trade meeting in a few days. Traders were happy to take some risk off the table amid a cautious session as reports flowed that Beijing was increasingly reluctant to agree to a broad trade deal. White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow tried to ease the anxiety saying it was possible the two countries could make progress and that the US was open to proposals from Beijing. Investors are getting tired of talk though and want more action as they try to factor in possible outcomes. Trump is again talking up ‘substantial’ rate cuts to pressure the Fed which could be a sign that a deal is not on the cards in the near term. The DOW closed down 0.36% while the broader SP500 was down 0.45% and the Nasdaq ended down 0.33%. In Europe, Indexes started the week with a rally although may follow the US’s lead and be more cautious in tonight’s session. A rally in oil during the European session helped to support energy stocks although the commodity fell later in US trade.

Trade talks are becoming increasingly important as they are viewed as the main drag on the economy. Traders are trying to balance what seems like a weaker economy with low interest rates and the main thing that will move price in either direction is a trade deal….or the lack of one. Traders will also be turning their focus next week to third-quarter earnings which will show more clarity on the impact from the ongoing trade war. Earnings are widely expected to fall around 3% to their lowest performance since 2016.

The USD was choppy overnight seeing buying through the Asian session and then the gains reversed through the European session only to be bought up again into the close of the US. The dollar continues to be caught between selling from expected rate cuts and safe haven buying on a global economic slowdown. The EURO was again choppy as price moved between gains and losses in line with flows on the USD and settled down near its lows. The GBP also drifted lower as sellers kept the pressure on the pair around 1.2330. The AUD moved down which started in the Aussie session and continued through to the US close. Again the move looks like recent buyers are unconvinced that we will see a trade deal and are happy to lock away some gains. The USDJPY rallied with buyers pushing price up and through 106.920 which triggered some short covering.

Gold fell as safe haven buyers held on the sidelines ahead of trade talks and the USD rallied to pressure buyers of the precious metal. Price is now around the 1500 mark where we may see a safe haven bid start to support price again if expectations are that a deal will not materialize and talks breakdown. Oil rallied through the European session in what seemed like a short squeeze as sellers closed out having to buy back to lock away some gains. The commodity then fell during the US session to end back down where it started around 52.80. Copper had another good session to back up Fridays action as price rallied. The move may be a ‘squaring up’ of some short positions ahead of trade talks in the off chance that the US and China come to some sort of deal.

Cryptocurrencies bounce back and push higher across the board as bitcoin is currently trading at $8231.8 up 3.84% from yesterdays action which was below $7900. Ethereum is trading at $181.26 up 6.41% and Ripple had a good session and is at $0.27639 up 8.43%.

The ASX200 had a good open yesterday and managed to hold onto the gains into the close after a minor pullback during the middle of the session. The Index ended up 46.5 points to 6563.6 with all sectors ending in the green while Gold and IT led the charge. Rising stocks outnumbered declining ones by 639 to 388 and 324 ended unchanged.

The ASX200 is expected to open up 25 points as the SPI200 continued the move higher overnight.

ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEDT)

JPY Average Cash Earnings and Household Spending 10:30am

JPY Current Account 10:50am

AUD Business Confidence and Job Adverts 11:30am

CNY Caixin Services PMI 12:45pm

GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks 3:10pm

EUR German Industrial Production 5pm

GBP MPC Member Haldane Speaks 7:20pm

GBP Member Tenreyro Speaks 8:30am

USD PPI Data 11:30am

USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks 4:50am

SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH