The Morning Jumpstart

OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT (as at 8:30am AEDT)

  • SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures up 28 pts to 6658
  • SP500 up 2.14 pts to 3076.76
  • NASDAQ down 24.05 pts to 8410.63
  • Dow Jones down 0.07 pts to 27,492.56
  • FTSE100 up 8.57 pts to 7396.65
  • DAX30 up 31.39 pts to 13,179.89
  • GOLD futures US Session (December) up $8.80 to $1492.50 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US Session (Comex Dec) down $0.030 to $2.6700 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Dec) down $0.69 to $56.54 a barrel
  • CRB Index down 1.58 pts to 180.51
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.6884
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1068
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.2855
  • USDJPY trading at 108.9700
  • USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) down 0.027 to 97.778

US Stock Indexes ended the session little changed although buyers were capped by news that the trade deal may be delayed. A senior official of the Trump administration said in anonymity the phase 1 trade deal could be delayed until December as discussions continue over terms and venue. The official also said that it is still possible that an agreement may not be reached although a deal was more likely than not. China continues to push Trump to rollback more tariffs as part of the phase 1 deal but the official believes that a quick deal is China’s best chance for favorable terms as pressure mounts for a Trump congressional impeachment. The DOW closed flat while the broader SP500 was up 0.07% and the Nasdaq ended down 0.29%. In Europe, major indexes continued to creep higher with the Euro Stoxx Index flirting with new all time highs. A surge in shares of consumer-focused companies helped offset declines in autos and miners. The news on trade hit only minutes after Europe closed so we may expect a reaction lower on the open tonight.

US stocks may also be taking a breather after their recent run to new all time highs. Generally, this time of year is typically a bullish time for stocks but the recent rally has been fueled by progress in the trade war and if traders expect further delays or potentially a deal to fall through, we may expect some profit taking.

The USD initially dipped through the European session only to bounce back through US trade to end relatively flat. Price did spike lower on the trade news but was quick to bounce back as any negative trade news is expected to see some safe haven buying into the USD and movement out of other currencies. The EURO came under pressure at the start of the US session fall away from intraday highs made in European trade. The news on trade saw flows out of the Euro as the pair finished the session on its lows. The GBP found a little more selling pressure than most major pairs as price pushed down out of recent consolidation between 1.2895 and 1.2870. The AUD came under pressure once the news hit on trade and price ended down near the lows for the session. The USDJPY saw some safe haven flows back into the YEN which pressured price lower and squeezed out some recent buyers.

Gold managed to edge higher thanks again to safe haven flows into the precious metal. Buyers still look content to hold the 1485 level on the futures contract so we will be watching to see if further negative news on trade can get the bulls into action. Crude Oil was on the rise into the inventory data release which came out higher than expected and saw selling into the black gold. The move lower was also helped by trade news on potential delays to the phase 1 deal meaning delays to demand. Copper was also hit on trade news to push down to session lows and put the squeeze on recent buyers.

Cryptocurrencies drifted lower as buyers stayed on the sidelines for now. Bitcoin is currently trading at $9299.8 down 0.49% while Ethereum is at $188.87 down 0.61% and Ripple is flat at $0.30082 up 0.02%.

The ASX200 had a rough session yesterday as weakness creeps into the action. The index opened up around 20 points but then proceeded to selloff all day and end on its lows. At the close the index finished down 36.9 points to 6660.2. Generally all sectors were in the firing line with Gold and IT leading the way while the mining and resources sectors managed to end with slight gains. Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 682 to 468 and 316 ended unchanged.

The ASX200 is expected to open up 25/30 points as the SPI200 rallied to make back a lot of the days losses in an unusual move against the trend of the US action.

ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEDT)

AUD Trade Balance 11:30am

EUR German Industrial Production 6pm

EUR EU Economic Forecasts 9pm

EUR Eurogroup Meetings All Day

GBP BOE Monetary Policy Report, Summary and Official Bank Rate 11pm

GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks 11:30pm

USD Unemployment Claims 12:30am

SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH