The Morning Jumpstart Macro View

OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR FRIDAY 4/06/21 (as at 7:15am AEST)

  • SPI200 (Jun) overnight futures up 2 pts to 7265
  • SP500 down 15.27 pts to 4192.85
  • NASDAQ Composite down 141.82 points to 13614.51
  • Dow Jones down 23.34 pts to 34577.04
  • FTSE100 down 43.65 pts to 7064.35
  • DAX30 up 29.96 pts to 15632.67
  • GOLD futures US session (Aug) down $37.20 to $1872.70 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US session (Comex July) down $0.1232 to $4.4683 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex July) down $0.02 to $68.81 a barrel
  • CRB Index down 1.81 pts to 207.47
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.7662
  • EURUSD trading at 1.2126
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.4101
  • USDJPY trading at 110.3000
  • USD Index US Session (ICE Jun) up 0.589 to 90.490

US indexes started the session on the back foot but managed to brush aside the opening weakness to end well up of session lows. The Nasdaq was the hardest hit as big tech came under pressure after the employment data release. Unemployment claims came in less than expected and non-farm employment change better than expected as companies boost hiring in May. The release is a precursor to the main number out tonight but is hinting at what traders may expect. The robust data release is a challenge to the Feds ‘inflation as transitory’ narrative as better jobs result in more spending leading to further inflationary pressure. As the employment numbers improve, there will be more pressure on the Fed Reserve to taper the bond buying earlier than expected and start to butter us up for rate rises down the track. The news fanned concern for inflation remaining elevated for longer and eclipsed reports that President Joe Biden has offered to scrap his proposed corporate tax hike which would turn a headwind into a tailwind for shares. The DOW closed down 0.07% while the broader SP500 ended down 0.36% and the Nasdaq closed down 1.03% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes came under some pressure early as traders took some risk off the table ahead of the US employment data release. Prices later rebounded on upbeat eurozone business growth data and the stronger than expected employment number. European Bunds edged lower along with the US 10-year note which did not see the volatility that the USD did.

The USD Index spiked hard on the positive employment release in a move that has been prepped for the last few days. A lot of sellers were squeezed out of the action on the increasing expectations for higher inflation and higher bond yields. Bond prices did not see that same reaction with regards to the spike in volatility but may be awaiting the Payrolls number tonight which should give more clarity on the US labour market. The EURUSD obviously took the opportunity to spike lower and flush out any remaining bulls above the 1.2165 zone. Price is extended lower so may see some bargain hunting but we would expect any buying to be limited ahead of payrolls tonight and the pressure to remain lower. The GBPUSD saw some chop with a flush lower ahead of the European open followed by a spike higher through 1.4180 and then a dump into key support at 1.4100 which held into the US close. The level may come under further pressure today as sellers attempt to trigger some stop losses below the zone. Although price is extended, any further strength in the USD tonight will see a push through support to test towards the 1.4000 area. The AUDUSD came under pressure all day and into the European session before taking a big hit through 0.7700 to end the session on its knees. The move lower could easily extend today as some local ASX traders play catchup although the move down is well and truly extended and may see some back and fill higher on short covering. The USDJPY held a higher low as expected around 109.500 and rallied straight up to end the session on intraday highs. If price continues to consolidate the gains in the Asian session then we would expect to see more upside tonight and an extension on the move up.

SPOT GOLD took a beating as buyers bailed and sellers dived into the action on break below 1890. The move down may be exhausted and need to clear out some sellers on a pullback higher prior to any further move down. The Daily uptrend is still in tact so recent action may be the flush we need to see the extension into 1960 but the payroll data out tonight will be the key. Crude Oil recovered well from a spike lower on the US session to end roughly where it started the day. Price is in pullback mode off the highs and seems to be searching for a base to continue the trend higher up through 69.50. We expect to see another push lower and for a higher low to hold that will entice more buyers into the action. Copper took a hit to ruin the bulls party as price broke down on the back of the USD strength. Price moved back into support around the 4.4415 area to confirm a key lower high. We would expect to see further longer term pressure as price is moving down and confirming daily resistance.

Cryptocurrencies continue to lift generally holding trends higher being led by Bitcoin and Ethereum. Prices are now approaching key levels from the recent selloff so may come into some short term profit taking. Bitcoin is currently trading at $38875.9 up 2.85% while Ethereum is at $2830.37 up 4.04% and Ripple lagged currently trading at $1.03808 up 0.75%.

The ASX200 rallied from the open yesterday to add to the previous sessions gains in a solid day from the bulls. The index ended the session up 42.3 points to 7260.1 with Energy stocks again leading the way. The Utilities sector ended up over 2% while IT also ended strong. Aussie retail sales came out in line with expectations up 1.1% for the month while the Trade Balance came in higher than the previous reading up $8.03B. Rising stocks outnumbered declining ones by 732 to 610 and 405 ended unchanged.

The ASX200 is expected to open up 5 points as the SPI200 fought back from early weakness in European trade to close back around the day sessions highs.

ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEDT)

NZD RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks 5pm

EUR Retail Sales 7pm

EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks 9pm

USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks 9pm

CAD Employment Change and Unemployment Rate 10:30pm

USD Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate 10:30pm

SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH