–
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR MONDAY 6/04/20
- SPI200 (Jun) overnight futures up 46 pts to 5079
- SP500 down 38.25 pts to 2488.65
- NASDAQ down 114.23 pts to 7373.08
- Dow Jones down 360.91 pts to 21,052.53
- FTSE100 down 64.72 pts to 5415.50
- DAX30 down 45.05 pts to 9525.77
- GOLD futures (June Contract) up $8.00 to $1645.70 an ounce
- COPPER futures (Comex May) down $0.040 to $2.179 a pound
- OIL futures US Session (Nymex May) up $3.02 to $28.34 a barrel
- CRB Index up 3.12 pts to 127.96
- AUDUSD trading at 0.5997
- EURUSD trading at 1.0801
- GBPUSD trading at 1.2269
- USDJPY trading at 108.5500
- USD Index US Session (ICE June) up 0.479 to 100.750
US Indexes again ended the day and week lower as employment data came in a lot weaker than was expected as the cracks continue to appear. Unlike the previous session, there was little buying pressure after the data release leaving sellers to edge prices lower into the close. Expectations were for a drop of 100K but the data came in down 701K and the unemployment rate went from 3.8% to 4.4%. The data abruptly ended a record US job growth streak and analysts expect further bad news to come as the virus explodes in the US. New Yorks death toll spiked over the weekend which will continue to leave traders cautious for a potential bounce in markets. Many expect a test of the lows at a minimum as the focus will be on economic data to come out and the massive toll on the economy while the virus spread is far from under control yet. The DOW finished down 1.69% while the broader SP500 was also down 1.51% and the Nasdaq ended down 1.53% for the session. In Europe, stock Indexes also moved lower after a number of companies flagged a hit to business from the pandemic, foreshadowing a deeper earnings recession ahead of the reporting season.
Oil may take a hit after OPEC and Russia have postponed a Monday meeting to discuss oil output cuts until Thursday as the dispute between Russia and Saudi Arabia over plunging oil prices intensifies. Oil hit an 18-year low on March 30 due to a slump in demand caused by lockdowns and the failure by OPEC and producers led by Russia to extend a deal on output cuts which expired March 31st. Trump has been pressuring the group to come to a deal to cut production but Washington, however, has yet to make any commitment to join the effort to support price although Texas, the heart of US oil production, may consider regulating output for the first time in 50 years. Trump is also considering tariffs on imported oil to the US which will do little to support oil price only appease US producers….and probably annoy Russia further.
The USD Index saw another day of gains as traders sought shelter in the safety of the dollar against other major pairs. As economic data is released and shows a worsening fallout from the coronavirus, we expect to see a continued move higher in the USD which will in turn pressure major FX pairs and commodities which are priced in USD. The EURUSD continued lower as the USD gained but the pair is also under pressure on the back of indecision among Eurozone governments about a rescue package for the regions economies. The GBPUSD was hit lower on the dollar strength but also after PMI data that was out Friday night showed a slump in business activity. We expect to see further pressure on the Pound as price finally breaks down after struggling to rally through the 1.2500 area. The AUDUSD just can not get a rally underway as price continued lower Friday as the Dollar gained as US job losses signal further pressure to come. Price pushed below the 60 cent level with the anchor to the move down at 0.6075. The USDJPY was lifted by the move in the dollar as price holds higher levels.
SPOT GOLD managed to hold onto the previous sessions gains although looks very choppy and is not getting the lift that many expected. If price pushed below the 1605 area then we may see a decent correction lower and clean out of recent buyers. Crude Oil rallied Friday although has gapped down on the open today as the Saudi and Russia disagreements continue and do not look to be resolved anytime soon. Expect to see further pressure as the recent buyers are squeezed out of the action. Copper remains under pressure as buyers can not push price up through the 2.2500 area. Expect that the economic issues that are yet to come to light will continue to suppress demand for the commodity.
Cryptocurrencies continue to hold onto recent gains with Bitcoin being capped for now below the 7000 zone but it is consolidating the level. Bitcoin is currently trading at $6758.2 down 1.49% while Ethereum is at $142.65 down 0.98% and Ripple is at $0.17861 down 1.25%.
The ASX200 started the session with gains Friday as was generally expected but then the rot set in and sellers worked prices lower with a lack of interest from buyers into the weekend. At the close the Index ended down 86.8 points to 5067.5 and was actually 35 points lower into the final match. The Industrials sector was the biggest drag in the action being followed by Consumer Discretionary and Telecomn Services. Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 624 to 544 and 266 ended unchanged.
The ASX200 is expected to open up 45 points although we expect to see bulls be tentative after Fridays selling intraday. If the 5000 level on the ASX200 Index can not hold today then further sellers may be triggered into action from the sidelines.
–
ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEDT)
CNY Bank Holiday
AUD MI Inflation Gauge 11pm
AUD ANZ Job Adverts 11:30am
EUR German Factory Orders 4pm
GBP Construction PMI 6:30pm
CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey 12:30am
–
SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH
