TRADESETUP

February 14, 2019

The Morning Jumpstart

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OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT (as at 8:10am AEDT)

  • SPI200 (Mar) overnight futures down 10 pts to 6008
  • SP500 up 8.30 pts to 2753.03
  • NASDAQ up 5.76 pts to 7420.38
  • Dow Jones up 117.51 pts to 25,543.27
  • FTSE100 up 57.70 pts to 7190.84
  • DAX30 up 41.14 pts to 11,167.22
  • GOLD futures US Session (April) down $5.10 to $1308.90 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US Session (Comex March) up $0.0050 to $2.7770 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex March) up $0.88 to $53.98 a barrel
  • CRB Index up 0.51 pts to 178.72
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.7089
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1268
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.2847
  • USDJPY trading at 111.0500

The US managed to extend the previous sessions rally as traders gained further confidence in a trade deal between the US and China. Buyers were also supported by inflationary data which came in lower than expected taking further pressure off a rate rise and supports the Feds ‘patient’ stance. The DOW closed up 0.46% while the broader SP500 was up 0.30% and the Nasdaq lagged but also ended up 0.08%. In Europe, major indexes ended higher after continued trade optimism stabilized earnings outlook after recent steep downward revisions.

The USD reversed the previous session to close higher as traders are still unsure of what to do with the USD. Safe haven buyers edged back in although traders were happy to keep risk into equities as trade negotiations are heading in the right direction. The EUR, GBP and the AUD were all lower as the USD rallied. The AUDUSD fared better than other majors on the dollar rally after consumer confidence earlier in the day session came out positive and lifted the Aussie. It also found strength from its correlation to the Kiwi Dollar after the RBNZ’s policy statement release which adopted an optimistic tone regarding the near-term economic outlook. The Pound also found weakness on falling inflationary data released overnight. The USDJPY was supported by strength in the dollar as the pair continued the push higher through 111.000.

Gold gave up any earlier gains to get hit lower through the US session as the outlook for a trade deal improved and the dollar gained. Traders were happy to remain risk on into shares as they continue the run up from the start of the year. Oil had a great start to the US session with a $2 rally although gave up some gains after USD Oil inventory came out higher than expected. Copper held up well against the strength into the USD as buyers were supported by the improving trade deal outlook.

Cryptocurrencies tried to hold their ground but edged lower overnight. Bitcoin is currently trading at $3611.9 down 0.78% while Ethereum is at $121.71 down 1.06% and Ripple is trading at $0.30287 down 0.42%.

The ASX200 struggled from the open yesterday and bulls could not push price back above the 6100 level. The Index closed the session down 15.5 points to 6063.6. Banks managed to end in the green, well all except CBA that went ex-div. Rising stocks outnumbered declining ones by 618 to 509 and 363 ended unchanged.

The ASX200 is expected to open down 10 points as the SPI200 dropped 20 points to support into the close of the US session.

– 

ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEDT)

JPY Prelim GDP 10:50am

AUD MI Inflation Expectations 11am

CNY Trade Balance Tentative

EUR German Prelim GDP 6pm

GBP MPC Member Vlieghe Speaks 8:30pm

EUR Flash GDP and Flash Employment Change 9pm

USD Retails Sales Data, PPI Data and Unemployment Claims 12:30am

AUD RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks 7:45am

SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH

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