TRADESETUP

May 17, 2019

The Morning Jumpstart

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OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT (as at 7am AEST)

  • SPI200 (Mar) overnight futures up 45 pts to 6390
  • SP500 up 25.36 pts to 2876.32
  • NASDAQ up 75.90 pts to 7898.05
  • Dow Jones up 214.66 pts to 25,862.68
  • FTSE100 up 56.56 pts to 7353.51
  • DAX30 up 210.80 pts to 12,310.37
  • GOLD futures US Session (June) down $11.00 to $1286.80 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US Session (Comex July) up $0.0060 to $2.7490 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex June) up $1.13 to $63.15 a barrel
  • CRB Index up 1.67 points to 182.32
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.6891
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1175
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.2796
  • USDJPY trading at 109.8500

The US share market kicked higher again overnight even as a shadow is hanging over trade talks. Traders were in a buying mood after better than expected data pointed to a strong economy. Buyers brushed aside a possible escalation in trade tensions after Washington placed Huawei on a blacklist which bans it from acquiring components and technology from US companies without prior approval. The DOW closed up another 0.84% while the broader SP500 was up 0.89% and the Nasdaq also closed up 0.97%. In Europe, major indexes were again higher with the German DAX index rallying over 1.7% as positive news on corporate deals outweighed fears of increased trade tensions.

The US has now gained back all of the lost ground and more from Mondays selloff as traders expect that negative news on Trade is already factored into the market. It may be too optimistic to declare victory yet as more companies hike prices in the US due to tariffs with Walmart being the latest. The longer the trade war plays out, the more the consumers are expected to be hurt and in turn flow on into companies bottom line.

The USD rose along with US bond yields after better than expected Unemployment data. The Euro fell on USD strength and found extra selling pressure on concerns over Italy. The AUD was bought up at the start of the European session only to be hit lower on the weak employment data and expectations for potential interest rate cuts sooner rather than later. The GBP continued the trend lower as Brexit fears resurface and pressure the currency pair. The USDJPY managed to rally as dollar buying pressure outweighed safe have buying into the YEN.

Gold gave up recent gains in a risk on tone into shares as safe haven traders bailed on the commodity. Oil rallied on supply concerns as tensions in the Middle East grew after a Saudi led coalition attack on Iran aligned rebels in Yemen. Copper had a relatively contained session giving up earlier gains from the European session through to the close of the US as trade concerns continue to hamper the commodity.

Cryptocurrencies took a bit of a breather overnight with Bitcoin currently trading at $7805.7 down 4.24% while Ethereum is at $258.85 up 7.73% and Ripples trading at $0.40959 down 5.73%.

The ASX200 opened and pushed lower yesterday but then rallied into the close after employment data showed that the unemployment rate unexpectedly went from 5.1 to 5.2%. The number of new jobs increased but was dominated by part-time numbers while the number of new full-time jobs fell in April. Traders will now be expecting that the RBA take some action and cut rates. The Index closed up 43.6 points to 6327.8 with the Energy and Gold sectors leading the way while Financials were the only sector in the red. Advancing stocks outnumbered falling ones by 682 to 452 and 391 ended unchanged.

The ASX200 is expected to open up 45 points after the SPI200 continued with the buying strength it found in the day session to push up through key highs.

ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEST)

NZD PPI Data 8:30am

EUR CPI Data 7pm

USD Prelim Consumer Sentiment and Prelim Inflation Expectations 12am

USD FOMC Member Clarida Speaks 3:40am

SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH

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