The Morning Jumpstart

OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT (as at 7am AEST)

  • SPI200 (Jun) overnight futures up 53 pts to 6388
  • SP500 up 58.82 pts to 2803.27
  • NASDAQ up 194.10 pts to 7527.12
  • Dow Jones up 512.40 pts to 25,332.18
  • FTSE100 up 29.49 pts to 7214.29
  • DAX30 up 178.36 pts to 11,971.17
  • GOLD futures US Session (August) up $2.30 to $1330.20 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US Session (Comex July) up $0.0170 to $2.6670 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex July) down $0.30 to $52.95 a barrel
  • CRB Index up 0.77 pts to 175.49
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.6992
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1253
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.2698
  • USDJPY trading at 108.1400

US stock indexes bounced back in a big way as the hope for a rate cut fires up the bulls. US Fed Reserve Chair Powell said the central bank would act ‘appropriate’ to address trade war risks and that they are monitoring the implications of the trade dispute/s which has disrupted global markets. The DOW managed to close up 2.06% while the broader SP500 was up 2.14% and the Nasdaq also closed up 2.65%. In Europe, Indexes ended higher being supported by auto stocks while the tech sector started the session on the back foot but managed to pair losses into the close. Broker coverage on auto stocks brought out the value traders to put the squeeze on sellers.

A rate cut in the US may already be factored in to US bonds as yields have been falling. It does not take much to bring out the bulls when broader markets have been down over 6% in May so we are interested to see what the effect of continued trade wars have on the risk on move. We expect to see further ups and downs as China and the US work out their differences.

The USD ticked lower after Powells speech opens the door to a rate cut in the US. The Euro cleaned out some buyers through the European session and then rallied into the close of the US on dollar weakness to end with minor gains. The GBP pushed higher holding higher lows and seems to have the 1.2740 zone targeted. The AUD defied the RBA rate cut and moved higher to hold higher lows. The USDJPY pushed up off the lows as YEN safe haven buyers booked some gains to take a breather as shares went ‘risk on’.

Gold consolidated the highs as the USD came under pressure. We expect the weakness in the dollar will continue to support Gold and any further shock to shares will bring in another wave of safe haven buying. Oil again edged lower even on USD weakness as traders are watching for further signs of an escalation in trade talks as neither side looks prepared to back down. Copper moved up thanks to weakness in the dollar. The move lacked conviction and may be running into some selling pressure to continue the push into support levels. The action will depend on the dollar and trade talk.

Cryptocurrencies moved lower to take some of the shine out of the recent rally. Bitcoin is trading at $7688.1 down 11.38% while Ethereum is currently at $239.78 down 9% and Ripple is trading at $0.39264 down 12.35%.

The ASX200 had a relatively flat session yesterday up until the RBA Interest rates came out to support the Index with a rate cut as expected. The index closed the session up 11.9 points to 6332.4 still being weighed down by trade issues. Telcom Services were the best performing sector while IT was the worst. The Gold sector under-performed considering Spot Gold is on the move up. Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 676 to 507 and 381 ended unchanged.

The ASX200 is expected to open up 54 points after the SPI200 was dragged higher overnight by a strong rally in the US. Traders will be watching GDP numbers at 11:30am.

ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEST)

AUD GDP 11:30am

CNY Caixin Services PMI 11:45am

GBP MPC Member Ramsden Speaks 5:45pm

EUR Final Services PMI 6pm

GBP Services PMI 6:30pm

EUR PPI Data and Retail Sales 7pm

USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 10:15pm

USD FOMC Member Clarida Speaks 11:45pm

USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 12am

USD Crude Oil Inventories 12:30am

USD Beige Book 4am

SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH