June 14, 2019
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT (as at 7am AEST)
US stock Indexes were back on the march higher overnight on renewed interest rate cut expectations. Data out in the US showed falling import prices and unemployment numbers rising which strengthened the case for a rate cut on easing inflation. Traders are still watching for further developments on US/China trade coming into the G20 meetings. Trump has described relations with China as ‘testy’ so we expect there may be no improvements in the near term. The DOW closed up 0.39% while the broader SP500 was up 0.41% and the Nasdaq ended up 0.57%. In Europe, share Indexes moved slightly higher although were capped by trade tensions. Metal and mining companies helped gains in the Index along with early gains into Energy.
Over 600 businesses, in a letter to the White House, have urged Trump to resolve trade disputes with China. The letter said that tariffs hurt American businesses and consumers and they are taxes paid directly by companies not China while increasing prices for consumers.
The USD Index was relatively unchanged and remains in a holding pattern until the Fed Rate Statement late next week. The Euro moved lower through the European session but then made back some of the losses through the US session after US data came out and pointed to a rate cut. The GBP also moved lower into support around 1.2670. If this level breaks, we expect to see some strong selling pressure towards previous lows around 1.2560. The AUD fell after local employment data to test support around 0.6900. It seems that the sellers are still in control and price may make another run lower in the near term. The USDJPY continues to look heavy with sellers capping price above the 108.500 zone. Traders may be awaiting for further news on the Feds direction for interest rates next week.
Gold continued to push higher on expectations for a rate cut and a weaker USD. Traders also sought safety in the commodity as global political risks increase. Aussie Gold extended gains getting an extra kick from a weakening AUDUSD. Oil rallied after the attacks on Oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman near Iran. The US has accused Iran of the attacks but yet to offer concrete evidence. Copper moved higher off yesterdays lows and looks set to squeeze out some recent sellers through 2.6625. If this action plays out then a major higher low will be in play and we expect to see a rally to the 2.7000 zone.
Cryptocurrencies continued to push higher overnight as Bitcoin is currently trading at $8258.2 up 2.14% while Ethereum is trading at $258.96 up 1.74% and Ripple is at $0.40198 up 1.51%.
The ASX200 saw a choppy open yesterday as price moved between minor gains and losses. In the end the index ended down 1.3 points to 6542.4. The Healthcare and Telcom sectors were the strongest while Energy and Consumer Discretionary were both down close to 2.5% for the day. Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 667 to 539 and 390 ended unchanged. Aussie Employment Change came out a lot better than expected although the unemployment rate unexpectedly remained at 5.2% which caused the AUDUSD to sell off down to the 0.6900 zone. In Asia, Hong Kong led the major indexes lower after violent clashes between protestors and the police.
The ASX200 is expected to open up 10 points as the SPI200 managed to consolidate the highs over the previous few sessions.
ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEST)
CNY Fixed Asset Investment, Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Unemployment Rate 12pm
JPY Revised Industrial Production 2:30pm
USD Retail Sales Data 10:30pm
GBP BOE Gove Carney Speaks 10:55pm
USD Capacity Utilization Rate and Industrial Production 11:15pm
USD Prelim Consumer Sentiment and Business Inventories 12am
SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH
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