The Morning Jumpstart

OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT (as at 7am AEST)

  • SPI200 (Sep) overnight futures down 12 pts to 6557
  • SP500 down 3.60 pts to 2913.78
  • NASDAQ up 25.26 pts to 7909.97
  • Dow Jones down 11.40 pts to 26,536.82
  • FTSE100 down 6.04 pts to 7416.39
  • DAX30 up 16.88 pts to 12,245.32
  • GOLD futures US Session (August) down $5.80 to $1412.90 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US Session (Comex Sept) down $0.0220 to $2.7130 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Aug) up $1.37 to $59.20 a barrel
  • CRB Index up 1.49 pts to 182.36
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.6985
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1370
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.2690
  • USDJPY trading at 107.7400
  • USD Index trading at 96.23 up 0.09

US markets were mixed as traders have curbed expectations for aggressive rate cuts as they await an outcome from US/China meetings at the G20. Trump continued pressure on Powell for cuts saying that he is doing a ‘bad job’ and urged the Fed to lower rates so that US exports can compete. In an interview on Fox Business, Trump said ‘I have the right to demote him. I have the right to fire him’. The problem is that the USD remains a choice asset to safeguard against global instability and could strengthen as interest rates fall. Analysts believe that Trumps policies of tariffs are likely strengthening the dollar. The DOW closed down 0.04% while the broader SP500 was down 0.12% but the Nasdaq ending up 0.32%. In Europe, major Indexes were mixed as traders await G20 news where the general consensus is for a trade truce with neither side willing to concede and end the trade war.

Trumps repeated flagging of his right to demote Powell may cause severe uncertainty in the markets as Central bank independence is typically seen as a key element of a stable economic system. If Trump attempts to take that away to enforce his own agenda, we may see something play out as in Turkey.

The USD Index was slightly higher but generally held a tight range as traders continue to adjust their interest rate expectations. The Euro saw a choppy start to the session before a rally on the open of the US session. Price then faded into the close to end around the same levels as yesterdays close. Buyers look to be building and may be ready to test 1.1405 highs. The GBP also finished around the same levels as the previous session but buyers look to be laying the ground work for another run to highs around 1.2760. The AUD rallied through the Asian and European session to consolidate the highs into the US close. Highs around 0.7010/20 look to be on the cards as price holds higher lows. The USDJPY got a move on to trade higher into previous support, now resistance, around 107.850.

Gold may be showing some signs of exhaustion as traders lock away some gains with price backing away from highs around 1439. The run may kick off again but will likely depend on what comes out of the meeting between the US and China. Oil continued the move higher as US crude oil inventories came out more negative than expected to add to supply concerns. Copper ended the session lower after earlier spiking up through highs at 2.7475.

Cryptocurrencies were mixed overnight as they saw a strong spike lower as bitcoin fell away from highs. Bitcoin is still strong, as traders cheer prospects of Facebooks Libra token, and is currently trading at $12318.9 up 5.92% while Ethereum is trading at $325.90 up 3.77% and Ripples at $0.45717 down 2.31%.

The ASX200 was generally well contained for most of the session yesterday before finding some selling into the close. The index ended down 17.5 points to 6640.5 with all sectors finishing weaker except for Industrials and Healthcare. Gold took its foot off the gas as buyers locked away some gains during the Asian session with the commodity falling another $20 from the US close. Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 745 to 512 and 427 ended unchanged.

The ASX200 is expected to open down 10 points as the SPI200 drifted lower into the US close.

ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEST)

NZD ANZ Business Confidence 11am

EUR German Prelim CPI All Day

USD Final GDP and Unemployment Claims 10:30pm

USD Pending Home Sales 12am

USD Bank Stress Test Results Tentative

SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH