The Morning Jumpstart

OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT (as at 7:15am AEST)

  • SPI200 (Sep) overnight futures up 16 pts to 6594
  • SP500 up 10.69 pts to 2995.11
  • NASDAQ up 22.04 pts to 8207.24
  • Dow Jones up 3.12 pts to 27,222.97
  • FTSE100 down 42.37 pts to 7493.09
  • DAX30 down 113.18 pts to 12,227.85
  • GOLD futures US Session (August) up $22.90 to $1446.20 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US Session (Comex Sept) up $0.0040 to $2.7200 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Aug) down $1.10 to $55.68 a barrel
  • CRB Index down 1.97 pts to 177.45
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.7076
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1277
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.2549
  • USDJPY trading at 107.3000
  • USD Index (ICE Sept) at 96.343 down 0.510

US Indexes got off to a slow start but managed to end in the green as some negative earnings weighed on the action early in the session. New York Fed Chair Williams gave a lift to the market into the close as his comments reaffirmed expectations for a rate cut at the end of the month. Unemployment data out also suggests the rate cut is all but set in stone as the US try to stimulate the economy. The DOW closed up 0.01% while the broader SP500 was up 0.36% and the Nasdaq ended up 0.27%. In Europe, major Indexes were down early on concerns for earnings weakness although managed to find support on hopes for looser monetary policy from the ECB to try to stimulate the region.

US and China are booked in to talk by phone which may potentially pave the way for trade talks to resume in person according to Treasury Secretary Mnuchin. Although a step in the right direction, the two sides still seem far from an agreement on the year long tit-for-tat trade war.

The USD Index continued the move lower on rate cut expectations and after Trump talks up the need for a weaker USD. The comments prompted speculation that he could order sales into the currency on perceived ‘dollar overvaluation’. The Euro found strong buying after the comments as price rallied hard off support around 1.1210 straight into previous highs around 1.1283. We are now watching for continuation in the move through the Asian session to squeeze out the sellers for a pop through the highs. The GBP also bounced strong with previous highs at 1.2573 well in sight. Bulls will be watching for a major higher low to build over the coming few trading sessions to see if price could then target 1.2750 highs from late June. The AUD saw continued strength after the action took out resistance at the 0.7040 zone. The USDJPY continued to surge lower as price easily broke down below 107.60 support with potential to move down to the 106.800/107.000 zone.

Gold continued higher with another strong session into the precious metal. A fall in the USD helped to support buyers who are happy to continue to buy dips on expectations for longer term weakness into the USD. Oil continued to tumble as news filtered through the market that Iran offered the US a nuclear deal if the US drops sanctions. Copper buyers were again out stepping up the pressure on USD weakness and managed to close the commodity up at the days highs. The next port of call is now highs up around 2.7500 if USD weakness persists.

Cryptocurrencies surged higher as Bitcoin pushed back above the 10000 level and is currently trading at $10,676.0 up9.04%. Ethereum also had a good night and is trading at $223.92 up 5.18% and Ripple is at $0.32052 up 1.61%.

The ASX200 had a rough session yesterday as employment data came in weaker than expected. The index ended the session down 24.2 points to 6649.1 and it could have been worse if it wasn’t for a rally into the close. Energy was the weakest sector for the day while Gold stocks performed well after a rally into gold the night prior. Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 585 to 569 and 387 ended unchanged.

The ASX200 is expected to open up 15/20 points after buyers were happy to step into the action in the SPI200 overnight.

ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEST)

JPY National Core CPI 9:30am

JPY All Industries Activity 2:30pm

EUR German PPI 4pm

EUR Current Account 6pm

CAD Retail Sales Data 10:30pm

USD Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations Data 12am

USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks 1:05am

SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH