The Morning Jumpstart

OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT (as at 7am AEST)

  • SPI200 (Sep) overnight futures up 11 pts to 6641
  • SP500 up 8.42 pts to 2985.03
  • NASDAQ up 57.65 pts to 8204.14
  • Dow Jones up 17.70 pts to 27,171.90
  • FTSE100 up 6.23 pts to 7514.93
  • DAX30 up 29.33 pts to 12,289.40
  • GOLD futures US Session (August) down $1.60 to $1425.10 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US Session (Comex Sept) down $0.0340 to $2.7190 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Aug) up $0.59 to $56.22 a barrel
  • CRB Index down 0.04 pts to 178.55
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.7035
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1209
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.2477
  • USDJPY trading at 107.8800
  • USD Index (ICE Sept) at 96.970 up 0.153

US Indexes managed to hold onto some gains into the close as traders were buoyed by potential progress in US/China trade talks. Traders were also supported by some recent better than expected earnings and are awaiting results later in the week from Tech giants Facebook, Alphabet and Amazon to see if there is more of the same. The DOW closed up 0.07% while the broader SP500 was up 0.28% and the Nasdaq led the charge ending up 0.71%. In Europe, major Indexes were generally flat to slightly higher as trading volumes were lower than average as traders await a number of earnings and ECBs news on interest rates. Traders are still mindful of political issues in Italy as a showdown between parties will lead to uncertainty about the future of the government.

Focus continues to be on the USD as traders expect both the US Fed Reserve and the ECB to cut interest rates as it has been well telegraphed. What the focus will be on is how the Central Bankers are seeing the immediate future of the global market economy and whether further weakness can be expected. The US cuts are seen as precautionary as the economy remains in a strong position.

The USD Index edged higher during the US session to pressure the major crosses slightly into the close. The Euro saw a choppy session trading between 1.1207 and 1.1224 but could not hold the high end of the range and traded lower at the close of the US session as traders await the ECB announcement Thursday where they see a 50/50 chance that the ECB will lower rates. The GBP continued to find pressure with rallies into the pair met with selling pressure as price continues to factor in a no deal Brexit and now a potential for rate cuts if global weakness continues. The AUD managed a rally at the start of the European session only to see sellers push price back down into the US close. Initial buying may be attributed to a lift in sentiment for a US/China trade deal as positive chatter picks up. The USDJPY could not hold onto an initial rally and edged lower through the European and US sessions.

Gold was stuck in a narrow range overnight as traders await further direction on the USD. Safe haven buyers remained steady being supported by Iran tensions and geopolitical uncertainties. Oil was relatively contained as price edged higher with traders watching for events to unfold between the UK and Iran over the seizure of oil tankers in the straight of Hormuz. Sellers remain in control but any escalation in tensions may be the driving force that could see a spike in the buying pressure and trigger recent shorts to have to cover. Copper continued to edge lower overnight to give up gains made into the end of last week.

Cryptocurrencies backed off slightly and moved lower with Bitcoin currently trading at $10377.7 down 1.46%. Ethereum is at $215.78 down 1.72% and Ripple is currently at $0.32094 down 1.39%. With no further news on how the US is treating Facebooks Libra, we expect to see cryptos continue to drift lower in the short term.

The ASX200 managed to edge its way higher after the open yesterday up until midday when it seemed that someone fell asleep on the ‘sell button’ as price steadily moved lower until 2:30pm when buyers stepped back in (or the trader woke up). In the end the index ended down 9.1 points to 6691.2 with the Gold sector continuing the charge higher followed by Resources and Metals and Mining while Healthcare ended the day in the red. Rising stocks outnumbered declining ones by 609 to 581 and 391 ended unchanged.

The ASX200 is expected to open up 10 points as the SPI200 found some buying support to move price up into resistance into the US close.

ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEST)

JPY BOJ Core CPI 3pm

GBP Industrial Order Expectations 8pm

USD Existing Home Sales 12am

SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH