The Morning Jumpstart

OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT (as at 7am AEST)

  • SPI200 (Sep) overnight futures down 30 pts to 6722
  • SP500 down 32.80 pts to 2980.38
  • NASDAQ down 98.20 pts to 8175.42
  • Dow Jones down 333.75 pts to 26,864.27
  • FTSE100 down 59.99 pts to 7586.78
  • DAX30 up 41.80 pts to 12,189.04
  • GOLD futures US Session (December) down $17.70 to $1443.20 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US Session (Comex Sept) down $0.0170 to $2.6620 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Sep) down $0.20 to $57.85 a barrel
  • CRB Index up 0.18 pts to 178.53
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.6844
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1077
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.2163
  • USDJPY trading at 108.7600
  • USD Index (ICE Sept) at 98.347 up 0.538

US Indexes were hit lower into the close after Powells comments on interest rates. The market got what they expected with a rate cut from the Fed, but not what they hoped for in a signal that further cuts may be necessary. Powell said they cut rates due to muted inflation and global weakness but did not see the move as the start of a lengthy rate cut cycle. Trump was quick to comment saying that he is getting no help from the Fed as he has pressured for further cuts to help his administration. One thing to note is that the rate cut decision saw two votes against a cut with arguments for leaving rates unchanged. The DOW closed down 1.23% while the broader SP500 was down 1.09% and the Nasdaq also ended down 1.19%. In Europe, markets were mixed ahead of the Feds release so may play catch up tonight. The FTSE ended the session lower while the DAX was higher to bounce after the previous sessions losses.

The USD Index spiked higher on Powells comments that the cut was a “mid-cycle policy adjustment” rather than a broader loosening of monetary policy. The Euro was already on the way south into the Fed release and then managed to drop another 60 pips on the news. The GBP moved up off the previous sessions lows through the European session but then was hit back down on the Fed release to end up on support as the USD rallied. The AUD also dropped like a stone on the news after earlier finding some strength due to better than expected CPI data and tested previous major lows around 0.6830. The USDJPY spiked higher but did find some sellers up around previous highs at 108.900 to cap the move up.

It will be interesting to see if the spike into the USD was overdone as a rate cut was always factored in prior to the news release and recent economic data out showed signs of strength and hinted that more cuts may not be necessary. If not, it seems that traders were not taking notice of the recent data and signs that the economy is not as weak as thought, therefore ruling out potential further rate cuts. Powell will be watching the labour market and inflationary data going forward which may weaken enough to warrant further cuts as the economy is not out of the woods yet and the playing field is still wide open.

Gold weakened as the USD rallied and safe haven traders decided to lock away gains on Powells statement as expectations for 3 rate cuts by years end faded. Oil weathered the USD rally well as price found some support from weaker than expected US Oil Inventories. Copper found selling pressure during the European session to push below support around 2.6775 and the weakness continued into the close of the US on the dollar rally.

Cryptocurrencies had a solid night to rally mostly across the board as Bitcoin traded back above the $10,000 level currently trading at $10018.9 up 4.80%. Ethereum is trading at $214.44 up 2.74% while Ripple is trading at $0.31677 down 0.17%.

The ASX200 opened weaker yesterday and sellers continued the pressure into the close as the index ended down 32.5 points to 6812.6 at the close. The Utilities, Consumer Discretionary and Financial Sectors led the market lower. During the day, CPI data came out stronger than expected and lifted the AUDUSD off the lows. Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 719 to 529 and 348 ended unchanged.

The ASX200 is expected to open down 30 points as the SPI200 fell over after the Fed Statement.

ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEST)

JPY Final Manufacturing PMI 10:30am

AUD Import Prices 11:30am

CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI 11:45am

AUD Commodity Prices 4:30pm

EUR German Final Manufacturing PMI 5:55pm

EUR Final Manufacturing PMI 6pm

GBP Manufacturing PMI 6:30pm

GBP Official Bank Rate, BOE Inflation Report and Monetary Policy Summary 9pm

GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks 9:30pm

USD Unemployment Claims 10:30pm

USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 12am

SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH