The Morning Jumpstart

OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT

  • SPI200 (Sep) overnight futures flat at 6708
  • SP500 down 21.51 pts to 2932.05
  • NASDAQ down 107.05 pts to 8004.07
  • Dow Jones down 98.41 pts to 26,485.01
  • FTSE100 down 177.81 pts to 7407.06
  • DAX30 down 380.71 pts to 11,872.44
  • GOLD futures US Session (December) up $25.10 to $1457.50 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US Session (Comex Sept) down $0.0980 to $2.5680 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Sep) up $1.71 to $55.66 a barrel
  • CRB Index up 0.55 pts to 173.35
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.6801
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1108
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.2162
  • USDJPY trading at 106.5900
  • USD Index (ICE Sept) at 97.873 down 0.271

US Indexes continued to find weakness as trade tensions were front and center for investors. China on Friday vowed to retaliate against a new round of tariffs from the US which kept risk out of the market. US employment data came out slightly weaker than expected sending the USD lower while safe haven traders continued to buy up US bonds sending yields lower. The DOW closed down another 0.37% while the broader SP500 was down 0.73% and the Nasdaq also ended down 1.32%. In Europe, markets were hit hard as they played catchup to the US from Thursdays session.

Trump defended his stance on China and the new tariffs and insisted that consumers are not paying although this is in direct contrast to economists. He also said that things are going well with China and tweeted…”they are paying us Tens of Billions of Dollars, made possible by their monetary devaluations and pumping in massive amounts of cash to keep their system going”. An apposing study published by the National Bureau of Economic research in March found that all of the cost of tariffs imposed in 2018 were passed on to US consumers.

The USD was well overcooked from the previous session making a move lower easy after the employment data showed more weakness than expected. Buyers were squeezed out of the action as sellers jumped into the dollar on an outside chance that further rate cuts may still be on the cards. The Euro managed to grind higher as the USD weakened but continues to see sellers in control longer term. The GBP also managed to grind out some gains and found some minor resistance up at 1.2170. The AUD continued to come under pressure being more susceptible to trade talk and tariffs which have took a turn for the worse. Traders are still awaiting for news on potential China retaliation which is expected to include tariffs, a ban on export of rare earths and penalties against US companies within China. The USDJPY continue the move lower with traders preferring the safety of the YEN as apposed to the USD.

Gold saw a rally on the USD weakness after the data release although buyers were only making back some lost ground after gains were locked away into the precious metal through the Asian and European sessions. We expect gold to continue to find a safe haven bid if the USD continues lower. Oil made back some lost ground thanks to some bargain hunting after the sharp selloff on Trumps tariff news. We expect that the trade war will continue to apply pressure to the commodity as price finds volatility. Copper continued to come under pressure as traders see no end in sight to the trade war. Price is extended down into some key support around 2.5600 so we may see a reaction higher as bargain hunters jump in and sellers lock away some gains.

Cryptocurrencies move higher to continue to find some strength as Bitcoin teases the $11,000 zone and is currently trading at $10917.6 up 0.38%. Ethereum is also on the move up trading at $220.04 down (last 24 hrs) 0.43% while Ripple is trading at $0.32076 up 1.64%.

The ASX200 opened weaker on Friday but managed to grind higher and make back some of the losses into the close. The index ended down 20.3 points to 6768.6 up 20 points off the days lows. The gold sector was easily the strongest ending up over 6% for the day. The energy sector came under fire along with Resources. Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 669 to 549 and 340 ended unchanged.

The ASX200 is expected to open flat as the SPI200 swung between gains and losses in Friday nights session. We may see some weakness in the ASX200 on the open as traders digest the movement in the US.

ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEST)

AUD MI Inflation Gauge 11am

CNY Caixin Services PMI 11:45am

EUR German Final Services PMI 5:55pm

EUR Final Services PMI 6pm

GBP Services PMI 6:30pm

USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 12am

SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH