TRADESETUP

August 9, 2019

The Morning Jumpstart

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OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT

  • SPI200 (Sep) overnight futures up 39 pts to 6533
  • SP500 up 54.11 pts to 2938.09
  • NASDAQ up 176.33 pts to 8039.16
  • Dow Jones up 371.12 pts to 26,378.19
  • FTSE100 up 87.20 pts to 7285.90
  • DAX30 up 195.26 pts to 11,845.41
  • GOLD futures US Session (December) down $6.90 to $1512.70 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US Session (Comex Sept) up $0.0270 to $2.5980 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Sep) up $1.83 to $52.92 a barrel
  • CRB Index up 2.43 pts to 170.32
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.6783
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1193
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.2150
  • USDJPY trading at 105.7800
  • USD Index (ICE Sept) at 97.468 up 0.123

US stock Indexes rallied overnight to recover the losses from Mondays big down day. Global bond yields fought back as traders locked away some gains as yields rallied on the back of positive sentiment into shares. Buyers were supported by stronger than expected data out of China saying exports rose 3.3% year-on-year with expectations being for a fall of 2%. This helped support Asian and European markets which flowed over into the US session. The DOW closed up 1.43% while the broader SP500 was up 1.88% and the Nasdaq also ended up 2.24%. In Europe, markets moved higher from the open as the bulls came out to bargain hunt on the positive Chinese data.

Trade tensions are likely to continue and we expect that the troubles in Hong Kong may really add to the pressure. With China potentially set to send in the military to take control of the city, a resolution to the trade war in the near term looks very unlikely. The situation in Hong Kong continues to escalate as millions protest the government. This will not be good for a trade deal and could possible put pressure on the Yuan as funds continue to exit the country. China need dollars to sell to prop up the Yuan and there is a lot of speculation on how much they really have in reserve to continue to do this.

The USD edged higher overnight getting some support from a stronger Yuan as China fixed the rate at a higher level than expected. Trump was again on twitter criticising the Fed Reserve for not lowering interest rates and expressing his dissatisfaction with the strength of the dollar. The Euro saw another relatively choppy session and eased lower as the USD strengthened but buyers continued to provide support around the 1.1170 zone. The GBP saw a spike lower into the US open but managed to fight back into the close. Bears continue to pressure the currency on a stronger USD and Brexit concerns and are happy to hammer rallies as buyers struggle to gain any traction. The AUD managed to find some early strength on the data release from China but found some selling pressure late in the US session as the dollar gained ground. The USDJPY was stuck in a narrow range for most of the Asian and European session and then sellers took control into the US close as price looks heavy on USD strength.

Gold held up well under the pressure of the share market rally. This may be a sign that further volatility is to come as safe haven traders are happy to support pullbacks into the precious metal. Oil traded in a range between $52 and $53 a barrel as buyers were supported by stock market strength. The commodity is still under pressure longer term due to the trade war but reacted off key support around 50.80 so we will see if buyers can make a stand and build a major higher low. Copper found further buying to continue the short term trend up off support. It seems that no news on the trade front is good for price and we are seeing the sellers take the foot off the peddle….for now.

Cryptocurrencies fell away with the rally in share markets as Bitcoin is currently trading at $11650 down 2.69% while Ethereum is at $218.44 down 3.26% and Ripple is trading at $0.30461 down 1.93%.

The ASX200 had a rough start to the session yesterday but managed to rally 100 points off the lows to end up 48.6 points to 6568.1. The Gold sector is on a tear and led the charge higher again being closely followed by Materials and Resources. The Utilities sector was the only major area under pressure. Rising stocks outnumbered declining ones by 734 to 438 and 385 ended unchanged.

The ASX200 is expected to open up 40 points after the SPI200 rallied on the back of a solid US session.

ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEST)

AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks 9:30am

JPY Prelim GDP Data 9:50am

AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement, CPI and PPI Data 11:30am

EUR German Trade Balance 4pm

GBP GDP Data, Manufacturing Production and Goods Trade Balance 6:30am

CAD Employment Change and Unemployment Rate 10:30pm

USD PPI Data 10:30pm

SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH

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