The Morning Jumpstart

OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT (as at 7am AEST)

  • SPI200 (Sep) overnight futures up 33 pts to 6472
  • SP500 up 23.92 pts to 2924.43
  • NASDAQ up 71.65 pts to 8020.21
  • Dow Jones up 240.29 pts to 26,202.73
  • FTSE100 up 78.97 pts to 7203.97
  • DAX30 up 151.67 pts to 11,802.85
  • GOLD futures US Session (December) down $3.00 to $1512.70 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US Session (Comex Sept) up $0.0010 to $2.5790 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Dec) down $0.30 to $55.83 a barrel
  • CRB Index up 0.01 pts to 170.91
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.6781
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1087
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.2130
  • USDJPY trading at 106.6000
  • USD Index (ICE Sept) trading at 98.190 up 0.127

The US made back the lost ground from the previous session as major Indexes finished in positive territory. The move up started in the Asian session (as the DOW Futures rallied) and then continued on through to the US open where the gains were supported by some positive earnings from retailers. The stronger earnings results may be at odds with further rate cuts if data shows strength in the economy. If a healthy jobs market continues then people will continue to spend so the Fed will continue to watch the labour market. The DOW closed up 0.93% while the broader SP500 was also up 0.82% and the Nasdaq ended up 0.90%. In Europe, markets were boosted by the prospect of further stimulus which managed to overcome any negativity over the rising prospect of a global recession.

Bond yields rose on improved risk sentiment into equities and have fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed in next months meeting. The yield curve briefly inverted but was buoyed by positive data and earnings. All eyes will be on Fed Chairman Powells speech on Friday for direction on interest rates and the economy. Hopes are that Powell will support a dovish tone into rate cuts to support the share market.

The USD moved higher being supported by news from the FOMC meeting minutes that showed policy makers viewed the recent cut as a mid cycle adjustment rather than the start of a long term easing cycle. The Euro reacted lower after the FOMC release as the USD rallied in what has become a very choppy market as price is consolidating between 1.1100 and 1.1070. The GBP backed away from the 1.2175 resistance zone as rallies continue to be capped by a negative Brexit outlook. The AUD managed to rally 25 pips off 0.6773 support into 0.6800 during the European session only to come under fire as the USD rallied and pushing the AUD back down to the support zone. The pair continues to be highly levered to trade talks and capped by the USD rate outlook. The USDJPY found reversed the safe haven buying into the YEN in continued choppy price action. The USD rally also helped support the action as we expect that there may be a bit of ‘squaring up’ of positions into Powells speech on Friday.

Gold traded lower on USD strength but safe haven buyers seemed not to be deterred on share market strength as Gold holds above the $1500 zone on the Futures market. Oil fell slightly as price action continues to battle between supply (as US inventories were more negative than expected) and demand (on slowing global growth). Copper continues to be pressured into support but is finding buyers happy to step into the action and lift price.

Cryptocurrencies moved lower overnight led by Bitcoin which is currently trading at $10172.3 down 5.32% while Ethereum is trading at $185.8 down 5.4% and Ripple is at $0.26581 down 2.99%. Bitcoin is still holding a longer term wedge pattern which, if resolved to the upside, could mean a lot of bullish opportunity and a run in the crypto market.

The ASX200 opened down yesterday and then extended the losses during the session to end down 61.7 points to 6483.3. The main sectors under fire were Metals and Mining, Materials and Resources with a lot of other ‘red’ to fuel the move lower. Interesting the Gold sector again came under pressure even as gold bounced slightly overnight showing there is still some selling to be done. Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 661 to 496 and 362 ended unchanged.

The ASX200 is expected to open up 30 points to make back some of the lost ground from the previous session.

ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEST)

AUD Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI 9am

EUR French Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI 5:15pm

EUR German Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI 5:30pm

EUR Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI 6pm

EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts 9:30pm

USD Unemployment Claims 10:30pm

ALL Jackson Hole Symposium Day 1

SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH