TRADESETUP

September 13, 2019

The Morning Jumpstart

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OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT (as at 7am AEST)

  • SPI200 (Sep) overnight futures up 25 pts to 6673
  • SP500 up 8.64 pts to 3009.57
  • NASDAQ up 24.79 pts to 8194.47
  • Dow Jones up 45.41 pts to 27,182.45
  • FTSE100 up 6.64 pts to 7344.67
  • DAX30 up 51.18 pts to 12,410.25
  • GOLD futures US Session (December) up $3.10 to $1506.30 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US Session (Comex Dec) up $0.0290 to $2.6430 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Oct) down $0.65 to $55.10 a barrel
  • CRB Index up 0.73 pts to 174.46
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.6866
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1065
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.2337
  • USDJPY trading at 108.1100
  • USD Index (ICE Sept) trading at 98.352 down 0.276

In an eventful session overnight, US Indexes edged higher again being buoyed by ECB stimulus and trade war hopes. The recent rally continues to press up to new all time highs and is now within striking distance despite the bears. Global shares were supported as China and the US both made concessions ahead of next months planned talks in Washington. Trump agreed to delay some tariffs while China exempted tariffs on a basket of US imports and ‘promised’ to buy more agriculture products. The concessions are relatively immaterial, it is the talk that has traders hopes up. The DOW closed up 0.17% while the broader SP500 was up 0.29% and the Nasdaq also ended up 0.30%. In Europe, Indexes whipped around as the ECB boosted trader confidence as they promised continued stimulus through asset purchases and also cut interest rates. It seems that traders were expecting more stimulus (which will be bond purchases of 20 Billion Euros a month from Nov) and the ECB failed to live up to the expectations as the Euro ended higher. The ECB also said that euro zone banks will be exempted from paying a penalty charge on idle cash worth six times their mandatory reserves.

US CPI data and Budget deficit capped the buyers into the US close. CPI followed on from strong PPI and came out above expectations to deflate traders expectations for further interest rate cuts from the Fed. The US budget deficit ramped up through the $1 Trillion level year-to-date, after the Government posted a $200 billion budget deficit in August. Traders will have their eyes on Retail Sales out tonight in the US for direction on consumer support for the economy.

The USD initially ramped higher after the ECB announcement but was then smacked down once the CPI data came out as traders had to re-assess their rate cut expectations. The EURO saw a very whippy session as the pair spiked lower on the announcement to clean out some buyers and then rallied higher and held into the close as traders digested the stimulus package. The GBP also spiked lower on the news then rallied although ended around the same price as it started after falling back from resistance around 1.2372. The AUD also saw a choppy session but remained in its sideways range bound action being supported around 0.6850 and capped around 0.6890. The news on the trade front is expected to support the Aussie as long as expectations are that the US and China are trying to move forward. The USDJPY was met with a wall of worry over the USD as prices whipped around between gains and losses. In the end the pair managed to finish up near its highs even as the USD came under pressure.

Gold moved higher on the ECB release but could not hold onto the gains even as the USD came under pressure. The sellers found some comfort in the higher than expected reading for the inflationary CPI data as they expect that the economy is in better shape than the bears think. Oil was smacked down in European trade but managed to bounce in the US session to make back some of the losses as price was supported from a fall in the USD. A potential easing of trade tensions should be supportive of price on expectations for a lift in demand (as long as supply does not increase). Copper stared off the European session with a rally but then gave way to severe selling pressure on the ECB announcement as price took out lows. Like Oil, price was supported by a fall in the USD into the close to lift well off the lows and make back a lot of the losses.

Cryptocurrencies were stronger led by a rally in Bitcoin which is currently trading at $10324.8 up 2.11%. Ethereum is trading at $179.98 up 1.65% while Ripple is at $0.25263 up 0.05%.

The ASX200 had an unusual session yesterday with a strong open to push the Index up nearly 50 points before the sellers came in to smack the action back down. In the end the index ended up only 16.9 points to 6654.9 with most sectors ending in the green. The Gold sector was the best performer followed by Telcom Services while Energy fell over under the pressure of lower oil prices. Rising stocks outnumbered declining ones by 641 to 531 and 372 ended unchanged.

The ASX200 is expected to open up 25 points as the SPI200 rallied back up to the days highs in the US session.

ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEST)

CNY Bank Holiday All Day

JPY Revised Industrial Production 2:30pm

EUR German WPI 4pm

EUR Trade Balance 7pm

USD Retail Sales Data 10:30pm

USD Prelim Consumer Sentiment and Business Inventories 12am

SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH

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