The Morning Jumpstart

OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT (as at 7am AEST)

  • SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures up 14 pts to 6702
  • SP500 up 18.27 pts to 2984.87
  • NASDAQ up 83.76 pts to 8077.38
  • Dow Jones up 162.94 pts to 26,970.71
  • FTSE100 down 1.44 pts to 7289.99
  • DAX30 down 72.97 pts to 12,234.18
  • GOLD futures US Session (December) down $29.20 to $1511 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US Session (Comex Dec) up $0.0040 to $2.6110 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Nov) down $0.63 to $56.66 a barrel
  • CRB Index down 0.55 pts to 176.64
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.6756
  • EURUSD trading at 1.0945
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.2352
  • USDJPY trading at 107.7600
  • USD Index (ICE Dec) trading at 98.632 up 0.705

US Indexes bounced back from the previous sessions losses as traders went bargain hunting. Data out on housing came in better than expected as home buyers took advantage of lower interest rates. Traders seemed to shrug off Trump impeachment news and focus on economic data along with trade news. Trump said that a trade deal with China ‘could happen sooner than expected’ which was in contrast to his harsh words the day prior. He also announced, along with the Japanese Prime Minister, initial details of a trade deal between the US and Japan that would supposedly open up Japan to $7 Billion of US products. The DOW closed up 0.61% while the broader SP500 was up 0.62% and the Nasdaq ended up 1.05%. In Europe, Indexes followed on from the previous session in the US and were under pressure from the open playing catchup to the US although buyers were supported once Trump talked up a potential trade deal with China. In the end the major Indexes managed to make back the losses into the close being supported by a strong open to the US.

Trade Deal hopes remain the focus for traders as any deal in the near term will be buoyant for stock markets. Traders are caught between a no-deal outlook and relatively positive economic data out in the US showing that the economy is weathering the trade storm well. The risk will be that China may ‘wait it out’ and not have any intention of making a deal until a long time down the track. If this is the scenario that is playing out and traders get a ‘sniff’ then we expect to see some pressure on share markets and then further rate cuts in response….the question will be if it is enough to continue to support buyers. For now, good data is fighting with political noise and the data is winning.

The USD rebounded higher as traders went ‘risk on’ back into equities and US and Eurozone bond yields rallied showing a move out of safe haven assets. The move was also attributed to an unwinding of sell positions from a knee-jerk reaction to impeachment news the session prior. The EURO came under pressure again on the back of a USD rally that started in the Asian session and continued until the close of the US. The pair is also being hampered by concerns on the weakening state of the Eurozone economy. The GBP also came under pressure from the dollar rally and continues to be nagged by Brexit issues as British PM Johnson said that he would not seek an extension to Brexit even if the passing of a recent bill forced him to do so. The AUD spent the Asian and European session heading south as the potential for further rate cuts and weak commodities continue to pressure buyers. The USDJPY moved back up as the Dollar rallied and YEN safe haven buyers took a breather.

Gold slid as safe haven buyers disappeared and buyers also locked away some gains on the USD rally. Price continues to hold above key zones so expect to see some buying interest from Gold Bugs on the spike lower. Oil edged lower as US Crude Oil Inventories came out a lot stronger than expected. Copper continued to test the lows although managed to bounce back in the US session after Trumps announcement on trade with China.

Cryptocurrencies hold around the previous sessions lows after the big spike lower from the Stop run on Bitcoin through 9000 and the launch of Bakkt platform for Bitcoin futures. Bitcoin is currently trading at $8480.1 down 0.96% while Ethereum managed to bounce and is trading at $168.44 up 1.80% and Ripple is at $0.2490 up 3.64%.

The ASX200 yesterday found some buyers after the weak open to minimize the damage and during the session and into the close as the index ended the day down 38.7 points to 6710.2. Miners and Resources stocks came under pressure while the Energy sector led the charge lower. The IT sector managed to reverse the previous sessions losses while Gold did not perform as well as most expected. Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 698 to 450 and 373 ended unchanged.

The ASX200 is expected to open up 10/15 points after the SPI200 follows the US higher into the close.

ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEST)

EUR German Consumer Climate 4pm

EUR ECB Economic Bulletin 6pm

USD Final GDP, Prelim Wholesale Inventories and Unemployment Claims 10:30am

EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks 11:30am

GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks 11:45pm

USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks and Pending Home Sales 12am

USD FOMC Member Clarida Speaks 1:45am

SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH