The Morning Jumpstart

OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT (as at 7am AEST)

  • SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures down 120 pts to 6493
  • SP500 down 52.64 pts to 2887.61
  • NASDAQ down 123.44 pts to 7785.25
  • Dow Jones down 494.42 pts to 26,078.62
  • FTSE100 down 237.78 pts to 7122.54
  • DAX30 down 338.58 pts to 11,925.25
  • GOLD futures US Session (December) up $16.50 to $1505.50 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US Session (Comex Dec) up $0.0110 to $2.5710 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Nov) down $1.15 to $52.47 a barrel
  • CRB Index down 1.14 pts to 172.94
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.6706
  • EURUSD trading at 1.0961
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.2291
  • USDJPY trading at 107.1700
  • USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) trading at 98.697 down 0.080

US Indexes followed on from the previous selloff with another rough session as sellers piled into the action right from the open. Traders were previously spooked by negative manufacturing data and again with data out overnight on employment which comes ahead of Fridays non-farm payrolls. The biggest concern for the economy is that the trade war will drag on job growth and expectations are that we may be seeing early signs now of this occurring. Adding to the buildup of negative sentiment is pressure on Trump for impeachment and the US’s $7.5 Billion tariffs on European goods that could start another tit-for-tat trade war from the US on another front. The DOW closed down another 1.86% while the broader SP500 was down 1.79% and the Nasdaq ended down 1.56%. In Europe, Indexes were hit hard to fall around 3% as an already under pressure Eurozone is expected to feel the pinch from the US tariffs. Traders expectations are now for things to get worse before they get better. The FTSE also came under increased pressure from fresh Brexit drama.

The one thing that has helped US indexes remain steadfast is the strength of the domestic economy which has remaining resilient during a slowdown in global growth. The recent weak data has shaken investor confidence as we may be seeing the first few cracks appear. Traders see the main drag in the economy being the trade war and now the US has decided to play the same games with the EU. Not only are US consumers paying more for the same goods, manufacturing will have less to manufacture due to less demand from overseas…such as from China and Europe….if the trade war continues to escalate. This will have an obvious flow on affect to jobs and consumer spending.

The USD continued to come under pressure early in the European session and the move lower gained traction as jobs data came out weaker than expected ahead of Fridays big employment release. The data adds to the expectation that the Fed Reserve will be forced to cut rates again as trade wars intensify and further drag on the economy. The EURO was initially moving lower when the USD started to fall which provided support to the currency pair. Buyers showed some strength to hold a higher low and put pressure back on sellers with a push up through the 1.0950 level which was the previous anchor to the move down from 1.1100. The GBP traded much the same as the EURO as buyers reversed weakness and rallied on the fall in the USD. Price remains capped at 1.2335 but further Dollar weakness may see a rally through this zone. The AUD fell to retest the previous low around 0.6672 prior to the USD fall. Price may come under further selling pressure as buyers run out of puff below previous highs at 0.6720. The USDJPY extended the previous move lower to push into a potential buy zone around 107.000. Sellers remain in control as YEN safe haven buying adds to the downward pressure.

Gold reacted as expected with a rally and has now made back the previous few sessions losses putting price back above the $1500 zone on the futures contract. Oil again came under pressure as US oil inventories came in stronger than expected and traders see continued weaker demand with increased supply. Copper again reversed some selling pressure on a fall in the USD and managed to hold a higher low which suggests that price may want to move up.

Cryptocurrencies ended the session relatively unchanged to hold around the previous sessions close. Bitcoin is currently trading at $8243.3 down 1.41% while Ethereum is at $177.27 up 0.27% and Ripple is performing better and trading at $0.25115 up 0.65%.

The ASX200 fell off a cliff on the open yesterday and could not make back some of the lost ground into the close as the Index ended down 102.9 points to 6639.9. We expect to see much of the same today as fear may start to grip traders. All sectors ended in the red, accept for Gold (but only slightly), as Info Tech, Financials and Utilities led the charge lower. Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 770 to 409 and 319 ended unchanged.

The ASX200 is expected to open down 115 points as the SPI200 continued the day sessions move lower as the US came under pressure for a second session in a row. We would not expect to see much buying pressure ahead of trade balance data out at 11:30am.

ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEST)

CNY Bank Holiday All Day

AUD Trade Balance 11:30am

EUR German Bank Holiday All Day

USD FOMC Member Evans Speaks 4:45pm

EUR German Final Services PMI 5:55pm

EUR Final Services PMI 6pm

GBP Services PMI 6:30pm

EUR PPI and Retail Sales 7pm

USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks and Unemployment Claims 10:30pm

GBP MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks 12am

USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and Factory Orders 12am

SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH