October 10, 2019
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT (as at 7:30am AEDT)
US Stock Indexes bounced on bargain hunting as traders still hold out hopes for a trade deal between China and the US in the coming days. Traders are looking to see signs of progress in the trade talks although China put a dampener on the market late in the session as officials said that Beijing had lowered expectations for coming negotiations. Even as China said they are still open to agreeing to a partial trade deal, which initially supported the market, its widely expected that talks will break down as China will not meet the US’s core demands. US Job Openings data came out weaker than expected showing that employment growth is slowing as the economy loses momentum. The number is still good enough to ease fears of a recession that bears are talking up but does highlight the fall in business confidence that is weighing on corporate spending and investment. The Turkey military has pushed into Syria which triggered a selloff into the Turkish Lira and concern with other Arab nations The DOW closed up 0.70% while the broader SP500 was up 0.91% and the Nasdaq ended up 1.02%. In Europe, Indexes rallied from the open on the back of hopes for at least a partial trade deal although are expected to give up some of the gains in the coming session as China cooled the bulls hopes in US trade.
The move lower in job openings does support the Feds rhetoric on the labour market and interest rates and the importance to watch the data closely and move on rates when needed to help buoy inflation. What is does not support is a rate cutting cycle as Trump is trying to pressure the Fed into doing. The cooling in the economy is at a ‘controlled pace’ and is expected after an eleven year bull run, but there is still no need for drastic action from the Fed and multiple rate cuts.
The USD was unchanged from the previous session even as US bond yields rallied as traders were happy to sell safe havens and move risk into shares. USD sellers managed to spike price lower at the open of the US session although any losses were made back as price grinded higher into the US close. The EURO rallied on the open to pair the losses from the previous session on hopes for a trade deal. The 1.1000 zone continues to pressure buyers and provide a cap to any rally. The GBP continues to battle with the idea of another no deal Brexit as parliament look to force PM Boris into an extension if a deal can not be reached, which now looks highly unlikely. The AUD continued to find pressure from sellers as price heads lower and a full blown trade deal remains out of reach. The USDJPY had a good session to confirm a major higher low from the buyers and now looks set to continue the march higher initially to 107.880 then potentially 108.400.
Gold held its ground as trade war uncertainty continues to appeal to the safe haven buyers. Oil initially rallied into the US open but then gave up the gains to end flat after US oil inventories came out more positive than expected. Copper had another choppy session testing previous lows around 2.5615 which seems to be where buyers are happy to support price for now.
Cryptocurrencies had another solid session as prices were higher across the board with Bitcoin currently trading at $8572.8 up 4.70%. Ethereum also pushed higher and is trading at $190.69 up 6.18% while Ripple is at $0.28112 up 2.23%
The ASX200 opened lower yesterday and could held the lows into the close to give back most of the previous two sessions gains. The index ended down 46.7 points to 6546.7 with the Consumer Discretionary and Energy sectors leading the charge lower while Gold had a positive day. Falling stocks outnumbered advancing one by 638 to 408 and 342 ended unchanged.
The ASX200 is expected to open up 40/45 points as the SPI200 rallied during the European and US sessions.
ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEDT)
AUD Home Loans 11:30am
AUD MI Inflation Expectations Tentative
EUR German Trade Balance 5pm
GBP GDP, Manufacturing Production and Goods Trade Balance 7:30pm
GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks 8:20pm
ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts 10:30pm
USD CPI Data and Unemployment Claims 11:30pm
SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH
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