The Morning Jumpstart

OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT (as at 8am AEDT)

  • SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures up 52 pts to 6683
  • SP500 up 29.53 pts to 29695.68
  • NASDAQ up 100.06 pts to 8148.71
  • Dow Jones up 237.44 pts to 27,024.80
  • FTSE100 down 1.81 pts to 7211.64
  • DAX30 up 143.23 pts to 12,629.79
  • GOLD futures US Session (December) down $12.70 to $1484.90 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US Session (Comex Dec) down $0.023 to $2.6110 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Nov) down $0.71 to $52.88 a barrel
  • CRB Index down 0.24 pts to 174.75
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.6755
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1033
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.2776
  • USDJPY trading at 108.8500
  • USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) trading at 98.018 down 0.150

US Stock Indexes had a big session as buyers were triggered into action after the first big day of earnings kicked off with stronger than expected results and guidance from JPMorgan, UnitedHealth, Johnson and Johnson and Wells Fargo. Fading hopes for a trade deal were outweighed by expectations that earnings will be better than expected as the focus moves from ‘news driven headlines’ to ‘market fundamentals’ after the recent phase 1 trade deal was announced. The DOW closed up 0.89% while the broader SP500 was up 1.00% and the Nasdaq ended up 1.24%. In Europe, Indexes were supported by the hopes of a Brexit deal after a news report said negotiators were on the verge of a deal that would avoid Britain crashing out of the EU. A new deal would still have to go to a mixed British parliament which has already rejected previous deals.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that global growth is slowing but output could rebound if tariffs were removed. The easing is largely due to increasing fallout from trade tensions and is driven by a sharp deterioration in manufacturing activity and global trade, with the higher tariffs and prolonged trade policy uncertainty damaging investment and demand for capital goods. Without the Central Banks simultaneous easing of monetary policy, growth would be half a percentage point lower nearing recessionary levels.

The USD initially rallied through the European session on trade concern only to abruptly change direction and sell down at the start of the US trade on Brexit news as safe haven buyers exited the currency. The Dollar continues to be held in a long term range with price currently testing the lower bounds as it is caught between slowing growth and trade friction. The EURO had a choppy session as price was set to continue lower on trade concern but was then buoyed once the Brexit news hit and the USD fell. The GBP initially held up well and then was lifted as buyers continued to jump in and squeeze out sellers on the positive Brexit news. The AUD found some support during the day on RBA meeting minutes but then the tide turned to continue the longer term move lower on the prospect of further rate cuts and continued trade issues. The USDJPY took off as the US session came online and the dollar fell. Safe haven buyers ran for the door on the positive earnings results to spike price through key resistance into the close.

Gold again changed direction to give up gains from the previous session as safe haven buyers continued to step aside as they assess the action from the sidelines. Oil did not react to the risk on sentiment into the share market as price headed lower during US trade which suggests continue concern over trade issues. Copper was much the same as price started the move lower in Asian trade which continued through to the US close. It seems that pure trade related products are still showing concern for a phase 1 trade deal to get to the finish line.

Cryptocurrencies eased lower under mild selling pressure in a choppy session. Bitcoin is currently trading at $8169.5 down 2.02% while Ethereum is at $179.88 down 3.30% and Ripple is holding up better trading at $0.28641 down 1.61%.

The ASX200 oscillated between minor gains and losses yesterday in a quiet non-directional session although price ended at the top end of the days range. In the end the Index managed to hold onto some gains and end up 9.4 points to 6652. The Healthcare and Utilities sectors were the biggest gainers while miners and resources lagged after China’s comments on trade. Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 622 to 526 and 329 ended unchanged.

The ASX200 is expected to open up 55 points as the SPI200 rallied hard overnight following global markets higher.

ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEDT)

NZD CPI Data 8:45am

AUD MI Leading Index 10:30am

GBP CPI and PPI Data 7:30pm

EUR Final CPI Data and Trade Balance 8pm

CAD CPI Data 11:30pm

USD Retail Sales Data 11:30pm

GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks 12am

USD FOMC Member Evans Speaks 12am

EUR German Buba President Weidmann Speaks 4am

USD Beige Book 5am

SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH