The Morning Jumpstart

OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT (as at 8:30am AEDT)

  • SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures up 45 pts to 6702
  • SP500 up 11.36 pts to 3078.27
  • NASDAQ up 46.80 pts to 8433.20
  • Dow Jones up 114.75 pts to 27,462.11
  • FTSE100 up 67.27 pts to 7369.69
  • DAX30 up 175.23 pts to 13,136.28
  • GOLD futures US Session (December) up $1.20 to $1512.60 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US Session (Comex Dec) up $0.010 to $2.6630 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Dec) up $0.37 to $56.57 a barrel
  • CRB Index up 0.81 pts to 181.09
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.6884
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1128
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.2881
  • USDJPY trading at 108.5900
  • USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) up 0.309 to 97.350

US Stock Indexes were pushed into new all time highs across the board as trade optimism continued to bring in buyers with a ‘risk on mood’ into shares. More news on the signing of a preliminary trade deal supported the action while sentiment was also boosted by US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross who said that licenses for US companies to sell components to Huawei would come ‘very shortly’. The DOW closed up 0.42% while the broader SP500 was up 0.37% and the Nasdaq also ended up 0.56%. In Europe, some strong earnings reports and trade optimism helped to push major Indexes higher with the German DAX within striking distance of new all time high levels. The mood was upbeat as news did the rounds that the Trump administration may delay fresh tariffs that were suppose to hit EU carmakers next week. Markets were also supported by hopes that the new ECB chief Christine Lagarde will deliver fiscal stimulus.

The US manufacturing sector had some negative news out showing factory orders fell and business spending on equipment was slightly weaker. The news, although showing continued weakness into the sector, has been factored into the action and expectations are that a trade deal will lift the sector which has been held down by the 16 month long trade war. The current Index support is all from the prospects of a deal being done soon which would bump up the US economy. The question will then become whether the positive effects of a deal are factored into current levels as the US hovers at all time highs.

The USD put the pressure back on the bears as the currency moved higher through the European and US sessions to squeeze out recent sellers. Bears may have trouble moving back onto the action in the near term as the global outlook on trade improves. The EURO stumbled at key resistance around 1.1167 as the USD rallied and price edged lower. The initial view coming into the session was for continued dollar weakness and for the Euro to break up and out through 1.1167 but price is now testing inside support around 1.1130. It will be interesting to see the movements in the USD and Euro as traders go risk on into the US economy at all time highs therefore supporting the dollar. The GBP also took a hit as the USD rallied and buyers covered long positions. The AUD did not escape the selling pressure up at recent highs as sellers piled in and buyers squared up positions ahead of the RBA rate statement later today. The USDJPY broke out of a holding pattern to rally higher going into the start of the european session as USD bulls jumped back into the action and YEN safe haven buyers exited.

Gold edged lower off the recent highs overnight although held up well considering the rally into the USD and risk on mood into shares. Price seems stuck in a zone between 1517 and 1507 on the futures price. If the action continues to consolidate the same levels, we see the potential for buyers to jump in for another leg higher and push through 1524. Crude Oil continued to show strength through the European and most of the US session although price gave up a lot of the gains into the close of the US as buyers closed out to square up profitable positions. Copper had a choppy session as any gains were capped even as trade sentiment was positive. The action from the buyers was still positive after taking into account the move up in the dollar.

Cryptocurrencies had a positive session as buyers stepped in to pressure prices higher across the board. Bitcoin is currently trading at $9447.4 up 3.11% while Ethereum is at $188.15 up 3.94% and Ripple is lagging slight trading at $0.29571 up 2.25%.

The ASX200 had a solid open yesterday but struggled to hold onto the gains into the close with erratic price action during the session ahead of the RBA rate statement today. The index ended up 17.8 points to 6686.9 with the Metals and Mining, Resources and Materials sectors performing the strongest. WBC went into a trading halt to raise Teir 1 capital. Rising stocks outnumbered declining ones by 670 to 505 and 330 ended unchanged.

The ASX200 is expected to open up 35 points but sellers may again step in and price action choppy ahead of the RBA announcement at 2:30pm.

ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEDT)

CNY Caixin Services PMI 12:45pm

AUD RBA Rate Statement and Cash Rate 2:30pm

GBP Services PMI 8:30pm

EUR PPI 9pm

CAD Trade Balance 12:30am

USD Trade Balance 12:30am

USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 2am

SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH