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OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR THURSDAY 30/04/20 (as at 7:15am AEST)
- SPI200 (Jun) overnight futures up 108 pts to 5468
- SP500 up 76.12 pts to 2939.51
- NASDAQ up 306.98 pts to 8914.71
- Dow Jones up 532.31 pts to 24,633.86
- FTSE100 up 156.75 pts to 6115.25
- DAX30 up 312.11 pts to 11,107.74
- GOLD futures (June Contract) up $7.10 to $1729.30 an ounce
- COPPER futures (Comex July) up $0.035 to $2.380 a pound
- OIL futures US Session (Nymex June) up $3.01 to $15.35 a barrel
- CRB Index up 3.66 pts to 111.87
- AUDUSD trading at 0.6558
- EURUSD trading at 1.0876
- GBPUSD trading at 1.2471
- USDJPY trading at 106.6200
- USD Index US Session (ICE June) down 0.379 to 99.555
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The US Indexes flood gates opened and bulls rushed out to ramp the stock markets higher. Traders are currently brushing aside any negative news on GDP and the pressure on the economy even after words of warning from Fed Chair Powell and analysts who warn of a bigger hit to GDP with economic activity plunging. Traders were already on the march higher when news came out of another positive Covid-19 drug. Gilead Sciences said its experimental antiviral drug met the main goal of a trial testing it in COVID-19 patients. We are yet to see if this is a serious vaccine or just another opportunistic stock boosting market headline release from another company. The DOW ramped higher finishing up 2.21% while the broader SP500 was also up 2.66% and the Nasdaq followed the fun up 3.57% for the session. In Europe, stock Indexes also finished a lot higher as investors hold out hope for a vaccine and for economies to get back on their feet. Traders are throwing caution to the wind on any positive news release. German carmaker Daimler forecast operating profit at its Mercedes-Benz Cars & Vans division rising in 2020 and VW said they expect to be profitable on a full year basis.
GDP in the US is expected to get hit hard as the recent figures only take into account the last two weeks of March. The second quarter is expected to show a lot deeper contraction and will pressure further States to re-open potentially supporting the current bull run into shares. Economists do not believe reopening regional economies, which some states are now doing, would quickly return the broader economy to pre-pandemic levels, which they expect would take years. This would suggest another pullback in markets to reset but as traders, we have to trade what we see not expect…and for now the markets are going higher in a risk on tone.
The USD Index was sent lower on the back of vaccine news and as traders factor in the coming out of lockdown for many countries and US states. Traders continue to move out of the safety of the dollar and into shares. In saying that, bond prices continued to hold highs. The US Fed Reserve held interest rates near zero and said that they will continue to use their full range of tools to support the economy. The Feds concern for the downside risk to the economy suggest that they may remain extraordinarily accommodative for several years to come. The EURUSD continued to gain as the USD moved lower but saw some tentative trading action. If price can push above 1.0890, then we expect to see a strong run higher and this would correlate to a break below support into the USD. The GBPUSD was very choppy as price swung between gains and losses. Price moved up in the Asian session only to be hit hard down through support during European trade and then bounced right back into the US close. The action suggests that buyers are tentative at current levels and may be expecting a run back into the USD. The AUDUSD continued to power higher in the European session as bulls remain in control. The current action suggests an extended move up to 0.6685. The USDJPY remained in a downtrend and holding lower highs and we expect this theme to continue as long as risk continues to enter the stock markets pushing the USD lower.
SPOT GOLD found some buyers happy to step into the action above the 1700 level. Price spiked up through a minor resistance level at 1715 which suggests buyers are looking for a retest of 1740. Crude Oil prices moved higher to help support the positive sentiment in to the share market as crude oil stockpiles grew less than expected. Price still remains in a technical downtrend and below recent minor highs around $18. Copper rallied hard as expected as sentiment improved for a rise in demand. Price ended above previous highs so we may expect to see the run higher continue as long as the risk on tone into shares continues.
Cryptocurrencies follow the share market to put in a big session and strong move up. Bitcoin is currently trading at $8854.2 up 12.69% while Ethereum is at $215.45 up 8.86% and Ripple is $0.22651 up 5.68%.
The ASX200 had another positive session to rally right from the open yesterday and end up 80.3 points to 5393.4. The Energy sector led the charge up 5.17% on the day and Financials also had a very strong showing up 3.88% while the Gold, Utilities and Consumer Staples were all lower. Rising stocks outnumbered declining ones by 758 to 418 and 334 ended unchanged.
The ASX200 is expected to open up over 100 points as the SPI200 was ramped higher along with European and US markets.
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ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEDT)
CNY Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI 11am
AUD Import Prices 11:30am
JPY Consumer Confidence 3pm
EUR French Flash GDP 3:30pm
EUR German Retail Sales 4pm
EUR Spanish Flash GDP 5pm
EUR German Unemployment Change 5:55pm
EUR Prelim Flash GDP 7pm
EUR Main Refinancing Rate and Monetary Policy Statement 9:45pm
CAD GDP 10:30pm
EUR ECB Press Conference 10:30pm
USD Unemployment Claims 10:30pm
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SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH
