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OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR MONDAY 11/05/20
- SPI200 (Jun) overnight futures up 3 pts to 5405
- SP500 up 48.61 pts to 2929.80
- NASDAQ up 141.66 pts to 9121.32
- Dow Jones up 455.43 pts to 24,331.32
- FTSE100 closed
- DAX30 up 145.21 pts to 10,904.48
- GOLD futures (June Contract) down $11.90 to $1713.90 an ounce
- COPPER futures (Comex July) up $0.035 to $2.415 a pound
- OIL futures US Session (Nymex June) up $1.19 to $24.74 a barrel
- CRB Index up 2.16 pts to 124.74
- AUDUSD trading at 0.6532
- EURUSD trading at 1.0839
- GBPUSD trading at 1.2410
- USDJPY trading at 106.6500
- USD Index US Session (ICE June) down 0.133 to 99.773
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US Indexes ended the week with a bang being supported by an unemployment rate that more than tripled?!…continuing to show the divide between a plunging economy and a bullish market. The dismal employment data did nothing to deter the bulls from pushing prices higher looking ahead to the lockdowns easing across the US and continuing the addiction to stimulus. Over the weekend the White House said that they are considering more stimulus as they predict more job losses in the coming months. Trump also said that the US will start buying $3 Billion of dairy, meat and produce from farmers but it is unclear if his tweet referred to part of the $19 Billion relief plan announced in April by the Department of Agriculture. The market is looking ahead to a recovery as valuations and earnings are still aggressive and are assuming a v-shaped recovery even as the employment situation is expected to get worse. The return to the norm is not based on data at this stage and GDP figures suggest it will not be as rosy as Indexes are suggesting. Many analysts say that a lot more testing needs to be done to gain confidence in getting people back to work safely. The DOW finished up 1.91% and the broader SP500 was up 1.69% while the Nasdaq also ended up 1.58% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes were also supported by the continued risk on tone into share markets and an easing in the China-US trade tensions.
The USD Index initially kicked up on the back of the employment data but was later smacked lower into the close as recent buyers bailed on long positions. We assume that any negative numbers will lift expectations for further stimulus from the US Fed and therefore pressure the dollar. Still, the USD is the worlds reserve currency and is therefore supported. The EURUSD was choppy being supported by the move lower in the USD but also pressured by problems in the EU with Germany’s high court ruling. For now it is stuck in a broad range and hovering down off support around 1.0765. The GBPUSD reacted better to the employment data in the US as price kicked higher and managed to hold onto the bulk of the gains into the close. Price is in a prime position to hold a higher low and retest above 1.2450. The AUDUSD continues to be supported by the positive performance into global stock markets. Buyers held the recent gains and are set to push higher to test previous highs at 0.6570. The USDJPY was supported on the back of safe haven YEN selling as stocks were supported. The them has continued this morning as YEN pairs move higher seeing the USDJPY rally hard on the open.
SPOT GOLD gave up some of the gains from the previous sessions rally up through 1720. Watching for price to hold another higher low but continue to be range bound in the near term as risk continues to go into the share markets. We would expect that Gold may continue to come under pressure if the USD sees a sharp bounce on safe haven buying although, at this stage, with continued stimulus, the USD is being kept in check. Crude Oil prices rallied as the USD fell and bulls were supported by countries plans to relax economic and social lockdowns and therefore increasing hopes that demand will increase for the commodity. Copper lifted along with major Indexes early in the Asian session and managed to hold the gains into the close. Price looks set to push up to 2.5000 and is held up at 2.2810.
Cryptocurrencies were hit hard over the weekend as prices plunged more than a 10% move in a sudden spike lower. Prices remain around the lows of the spike down with Bitcoin currently trading at $8712.8 down 10.21% while Ethereum is at $187.99 down 12.24% and Ripple is at $0.19718 down 9.96%.
The ASX200 opened strong Friday and managed to hold onto the gains into the close. In the end the Index saw a quiet session to end up 26.9 points to 5391.1. Gains were made in Consumer Discretionary, A-Reits and the Metals and Mining Sectors. Rising stocks outnumbered declining ones by 772 to 453 and 326 ended unchanged.
The ASX200 is expected to open up 5 points as the SPI200 price action remained locked within a tight range into the weekend.
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ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEDT)
NZD ANZ Business Confidence 11am
EUR Italian Industrial Production 6pm
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SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH
