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OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR FRIDAY 31/07/20 (as at 7:15am AEST)
- SPI200 (Sept) overnight futures down 28 pts to 5986
- SP500 down 12.22 pts to 3246.22
- NASDAQ up 44.87 pts to 10,587.81
- Dow Jones down 225.92 pts to 26,313.65
- FTSE100 down 141.47 pts to 5989.99
- DAX30 down 442.61 pts to 12,379.65
- GOLD futures US session (Aug) down $6.0 to $1947.4 an ounce
- COPPER futures (Comex Sep) up $0.0002 to $2.9192 a pound
- OIL futures US Session (Nymex Sep) down $0.94 to $40.33 a barrel
- CRB Index down 1.56 pts to 142.78
- AUDUSD trading at 0.7188
- EURUSD trading at 1.1840
- GBPUSD trading at 1.3082
- USDJPY trading at 104.7900
- USD Index US Session (ICE Sept) down 0.527 to 92.905
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US indexes were only saved from a big selloff thanks to tech shares and a rally in the Nasdaq ahead of earnings due after the market close. Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Alphabet all reported after the bell and beat analysts expectations which may set up the Nasdaq for another run higher tonight. Major Indexes were rocked by a tweet from Trump raising the possibility that the elections could be delayed. He has been building the narrative of rigged mail-in voter fraud without any evidence so he may just be serious of using his power to delay the elections. He was probably just floating the idea to the market to gauge the reaction…which was not so good. This triggered uncertainty into the market which was being weighed down by worse than expected German GDP numbers. Data showed that US GDP collapsed and unemployment claims increased which weighed on already negative sentiment into the start of the US session. The DOW closed down 0.85% while the broader SP500 was down 0.37% and the Nasdaq ended up 0.43% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes were hit hard with the DAX leading the charge to end down 3.45%. Some dismal earnings reports also weighed on price and sent bulls running for cover.
The USD Index sank down into the 92.50 zone after Trumps tweet which triggered safe haven buying into bonds and sent yields moving lower. The Dollar remains under pressure as the prospect for lower rates continue even as the Fed has said that they are happy to hold interest rates steady. If the virus continues to weigh on the economic recovery, lower rates may be a possibility. The EURUSD spiked higher on the dollar selloff and pushed into resistance around the 1.1830 zone. We will be watching the Euro for a potential reaction lower from sellers and squeeze on the buyers but this will most likely depend on the USD action around the 92.50 zone . The GBPUSD also continued the march higher on the dollar weakness and took a few steps closer to the 1.3200 area. The move up is well and truly stretched but the momentum is strong and no cracks in the rally have appeared yet. The AUDUSD came under pressure during the Asian session as major Indexes moved lower. Traders were happy to lock in some gains into the start of the US session until the Nasdaq brushed aside a weak open to rally and lift the Aussie straight back into the highs. The USDJPY continued to be pressured by the USD as price broke into new lows into the US close. Expect to see the same theme continue as long as the USD is under selling pressure.
SPOT GOLD squeezed out some buyers during Asian and European trade as Indexes moved lower. Price soon recovered some of the losses as the US fought back from a weak open and the dollar moved down. Buyers look tentative up at highs so we are watching for a lower high which will pressure price lower. Crude Oil was hit at the start of the European session as Indexes went into risk off mode. Data out prior to the US open accelerated the move down through 39.00 until bargain hunters stepped in to lift price. The action suggests increasing concern for demand and sets the commodity up for a further selloff. Copper bulls remain stubborn to fend off weakness into price. As long as share markets hold up and the dollar falls, they have no reason to sell. Price is being capped around 2.9400 so things are looking shaky and set for a long squeeze if the dollar finds support.
Cryptocurrencies have a mixed session to fight back from earlier losses and end back at recent highs. Bitcoin is currently trading at $11107.7 down 0.94% while Ethereum did well and is at $336.14 up 3.82% and Ripple is at $0.24723 up 1.57%.
The ASX200 rallied from the open yesterday and managed to hold onto the gains into the close to end up 44.7 points to 6051.1. The session was another choppy one but the good news for the bulls is that price held above the 6000 zone. A break of this level may bring in more sellers to lock in gains. The IT sector led the charge higher and was followed by Consumer Staples and Materials. Rising stocks outnumbered declining one by 693 to 527 and 371 ended unchanged.
The ASX200 is expected to open down 25 points but it could have been worse as the SPI200 fought back from a big selloff to close well off the lows.
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ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEST)
CNY Manufacturing PMI 11am
AUD PPI and Private Sector Credit 11:30am
EUR German Retail Sales 4pm
EUR CPI Data and Prelim Flash GDP 7pm
CAD GDP 10:30pm
USD Personal Spending and Personal Income 10:30pm
USD Consumer Sentiment 12am
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SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH
