–
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR MONDAY 10/08/20
- SPI200 (Sept) overnight futures up 42 pts to 6014
- SP500 up 2.12 pts to 3351.28
- NASDAQ down 97.09 pts to 11,010.98
- Dow Jones up 46.50 pts to 27,433.48
- FTSE100 up 5.24 pts to 6032.18
- DAX30 up 83.20 pts to 12,674.88
- GOLD futures US session (Aug) down $24.90 to $2026.60 an ounce
- COPPER futures (Comex Sep) down $0.1200 to $2.7905 a pound
- OIL futures US Session (Nymex Sep) down $0.73 to $41.22 a barrel
- CRB Index down 1.75 pts to 146.85
- AUDUSD trading at 0.7157
- EURUSD trading at 1.1787
- GBPUSD trading at 1.3052
- USDJPY trading at 105.9200
- USD Index US Session (ICE Sept) up 0.622 to 93.390
–
US indexes rallied into the close in the final few hours of trade to wipe off a lot of the losses for the session. Prices were initially under pressure during the early part of the session after Employment data came out better than expected leaving buyers floundering over the next step for stimulus. Trump over the weekend signed executive orders to partly restore enhanced unemployment payments to the tens of millions of Americans. The orders will provide an extra $400 per week which is less than the $600 passed earlier in the crisis. The move took relief measures out of the hands of Congress and drew immediate criticism from Democrats saying that it is illegal and likely to face legal challenges which Trump knows will take months. Trump also said that he is suspending collection of payroll taxes which is an idea he has raised prior and has been rejected by both parties. Trumps aim is to get people back to work who were largely happy to stay on benefits for longer. The DOW closed up 0.17% while the broader SP500 was up 0.06% while the Nasdaq ended down 0.87% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes ended the week on a positive note with minor gains as generally positive earnings and economic data support the bulls. Traders were happy to brush aside negative news on US/China relations after Trump moved to ban Chinese owned messaging and video sharing apps. With the bulk of earnings over, investors were happy to see that most companies exceeded much-lowered forecasts for quarterly profits.
The USD Index found some buyers after the better than expected jobs numbers in the US eased concerns for the labour market. The rally did squeeze out some recent sellers but the move up may be capped as many traders weigh up stimulus and rising coronavirus cases to halt further gains. Companies will be waiting further news on stimulus in order to take their next step. The Dollar index continues to hold above the 92.50 area but is held down around 94.00 so we may see price hold in a range in the near term. The EURUSD moved down off its highs on the dollar rally as traders locked in some gains. Buyers will be closely watching economic conditions in the US and what impact rising cases will have on the economy and hence the USD. If price action holds above the 1.1700 zone then we expect there to be more range-bound action as the USD works its issues out. The GBPUSD moved down through the 1.3100 zone early in the Asian session to put pressure on buyers ahead of the US employment data. The rally into the USD sent price down further to test towards 1.3000 which is a key level to hold for bulls if they expect to see new highs in the near term. The AUDUSD was weighed down by the USD rally and earlier comments from the RBA on its downbeat assessment of the local economy. Price action is battling to make new highs as the USDs move down falters, while also struggling to move down as US share Indexes hold strong. The USDJPY squeeze higher played out nicely once the US employment data hit the newswires. If price can hold highs above 105.800 then we may see another spike higher through 106.100 and 106.400.
SPOT GOLD saw a sharp move lower after the employment data release and in line with the USD move up. We may expect to see some bulls get nervous and anxious to lock in gains if price moves much lower through $2015 but longer term moves will be dependent on the USD and stimulus levels. Crude Oil was under pressure all day thanks to the buoyant move into the USD. With bulls continuing to struggle to get momentum, we expect to see further pressure lower in the near term. Copper was hit hard with bears finally taking control on a move down through 2.8750. We expect that the spike lower will trigger further selling as longer term traders come under pressure and have to re-assess the action.
Cryptocurrencies edged lower over the weekend although buyers are still happy to soak up selling pressure. Prices are linked at this stage, to the fortunes of the USD. Bitcoin is currently trading at $11,654.1 down 0.92% while Ethereum is at $389.68 down 0.25% and Ripple is at $0.28883 down 2.05%.
The ASX200 had a relatively uneventful session Friday to to drift lower all day into the close. The Index ended the session down 37.4 points to 6004.8 with the Gold sector bearing the brunt of selling along with Metals and Mining and Materials. Rising stocks outnumbered declining ones by 642 to 615 and 352 ended unchanged.
The ASX200 is expected to open up 40/45 points after the SPI200 was dragged higher into the US close to end the week on a positive note.
–
ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEST)
CNY CPI and PPI Data 11:30am
–
SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH
