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OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR MONDAY 31/08/20
- SPI200 (Sept) overnight futures down 40 pts to 6004
- SP500 up 23.46 pts to 3508.01
- NASDAQ up 70.29 pts to 11,695.63
- Dow Jones up 161.60 pts to 28,653.87
- FTSE100 down 36.42 pts to 5963.57
- DAX30 down 63.16 pts to 13,033.20
- GOLD futures US session (Oct) up $41.8 to $1966.80 an ounce
- COPPER futures (Comex Dec) up $0.0407 to $3.0082 a pound
- OIL futures US Session (Nymex Oct) down $0.07 to $42.97 a barrel
- CRB Index up 0.74 pts to 153.44
- AUDUSD trading at 0.7366
- EURUSD trading at 1.1903
- GBPUSD trading at 1.3353
- USDJPY trading at 105.3700
- USD Index US Session (ICE Sept) down 0.704 to 92.287
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US indexes rounded out another solid week with further gains into the weekend. The major Indexes were again lifted from the open as the momentum move up continues. Buyers are being supported by a bounce in economic data and are more optimistic for the recovery although how much has been factored in is still the concern. Buyers were also supported by the idea that government may be getting closer to an agreement on another stimulus bill. Trump said that he was willing to sign a $1.3 trillion relief bill but Democrats are still rejecting the offer and saying that more is needed to help the American people. Still, it is a step in the right direction as long as both sides are still willing to continue negotiations. The DOW closed up 0.57% along with the broader SP500 which ended up 0.67% while the Nasdaq also ended up 0.60% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes moved lower as tech and healthcare stocks weighed on the action while banks were the sector of choice for buyers on the back of the new US policy framework for inflation.
The USD Index selling started early in the Asian session as price pushed back down through the 93.00 level to trade down to lows around 92.30. Price is now teetering on the edge of a large breakdown which will very supportive of USD denominated assets. If we see a significant push below the 92.20 zone then sellers will be in charge. The EURUSD found buyers as the dollar moved lower. Price is still stuck in a range though and being held below the recent highs at 1.1950. Further weakness into the USD will see buyers take price up into new highs to keep the charge going. The GBPUSD found strength to bust to new highs on the dollar weakness. Buyers are now targeting the 1.3510 area and as long as the minor anchor to the trend up at 1.3320 can hold then we expect this to happen soon…..obviously it will depend on the move into the dollar today. The AUDUSD had a good run higher Friday to push up through recent highs. Expectations may be for stronger commodity prices and increased demand which will filter through and support the local share market. The USDJPY surged on safe haven YEN buying after Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe resigned for health reasons. Price is hovering just above lows at 105.150 in search of support so bulls will need to make a stand or else a move down to 104.20 is on the cards.
SPOT GOLD had a big session Friday as the USD started to fall. Price made back the previous losses plus a little more to move back above the 1950 area. Expect that gold may get a head of steam if the USD continues to find sellers. The longer term daily chart looks supportive of a good move up so watching now if a pullback will be supported by bulls at higher levels. Crude Oil continues to struggle and can not establish a strong move up. The trend is edging higher but with a lot less conviction than other commodities. Buyers are happy to soak up selling pressure on expectations that we may see the other side of the pandemic soon and demand will lift. Copper had a good end to the week with a move back above the 3.00 zone and higher lows holding. The action suggests that we will see higher prices soon and another momentum move up….as long as the dollar continues to be weak. If the dollar rallies from current levels, then copper will see buyers unwind positions and a move down start.
Cryptocurrencies edged higher over the weekend with Ethereum leading the charge. Bitcoin is currently trading at $11584.7 up 0.75% while Ethereum is at $421.66 up 4.05% and Ripple is at $0.28090 up 12.93%.
The ASX200 fell right from the open Friday and held the losses into the close. The index ended down 52.4 points to 6073.8 with key losses in the IT, Metals and Mining and the Telecom Services sectors dragging on the action. Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 719 to 562 and 361 ended unchanged.
The ASX200 is expected to open down 40 points after the SPI200 had a rough end to the week.
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ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEST)
AUD MI Inflation Guage 1am
CNY Manufacturing PMI 11am
AUD Company Operating Profits and Private Sector Credit 11:30am
JPY Consumer Confidence 3pm
EUR German Prelim CPI All Day
GBP Bank Holiday
USD FOMC Member Clarida Speaks 11pm
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SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH
