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OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR MONDAY 2/11/20
- SPI200 (Sept) overnight futures up 52 pts to 5942
- SP500 down 40.15 pts to 3269.96
- NASDAQ down 274.00 pts to 10,911.59
- Dow Jones down 157.51 pts to 26,501.60
- FTSE100 down 4.48 pts to 5577.27
- DAX30 down 41.59 pts to 11,556.48
- GOLD futures US session (Dec) up $10.80 to $1878.80 an ounce
- COPPER futures (Comex Dec) down $0.0043 to $3.0522 a pound
- OIL futures US Session (Nymex Dec) down $0.38 to $35.79 a barrel
- CRB Index down 0.08 pts to 144.73
- AUDUSD trading at 0.7028
- EURUSD trading at 1.1647
- GBPUSD trading at 1.2947
- USDJPY trading at 104.6600
- USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) up 0.060 to 94.037
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US indexes came under fire on the open Friday but did find some buyers during the session to lift prices up off the lows into the close. Big tech shares saw the brunt of sellers frustration and nervousness into elections after some underwhelming outlooks and results from some of Wall Streets big boys such as Apple and Facebook. The NASDAQ pressure flowed over into the broader market SP500 as traders locked in some gains. We expect that the chop will increase as elections progress and an outcome becomes clear but do expect that stimulus will come back on the cards. What is not clear is whether a Trump win will lead to further stimulus based support or not, although it is widely expected that a Biden victory means a large package will hit the market and should support the action. The problem now that will contain enthusiasm is the rising number of virus cases in the US which is pushing hospitals to the brink of capacity and killing up to 1,000 people a day. The DOW closed down 0.59% while the broader SP500 ended down 1.21% and the Nasdaq closed down 2.45% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes managed to find some support during the session to stave of another selloff. Strong earnings helped buyers hold their nerve although new lockdowns in London may see further nervousness and selling pressure this week.
The USD Index edged its way higher Friday to retest the 94.00 zone before a late selloff saw price back below the level just above where it started the session. There may have been some safe haven buying in anticipation of further stock market weakness, which had to square up into the close to push price back down. The EURUSD moved lower from the US open and held the losses into the US close. We expect to see some further weakness on the open today and a potential push into previous daily lows around the 1.1610 level. A break of the level should squeeze out further long term holders. The GBPUSD was also under pressure from the early dollar strength and held the weakness into the weekend. Lockdowns in England should see the 1.2915 zone come under pressure and open up a bigger move lower. The AUDUSD continues to hover around the lows at 0.7010 but is managing to hold up off the level for now as sellers keep the pressure on. A retest and fail of the 0.7070 area may be an early warning sign from sellers that any rally will be capped at this level through election volatility. The USDJPY saw another major spike into 104.100 rejected so we expect the level to hold. If we are truly going to see a Biden victory as the polls are showing, then expect that the bearish action may pick up as the election results become clearer and dollar sellers start to factor in more stimulus.
SPOT GOLD managed to claw back some losses into the weekend up off the 1860 area. If buyers can hold price off the 1874 level then we may see another push higher although there will be some volatility into the USD as the elections progress which will translate into chop into gold. Longer term the trend remains down until stimulus news is back in focus. Crude Oil remained under pressure into the weekend as buyers stayed on the sidelines. Price could not break back above the 36.60 area and fell back down to session lows into the US close. A push below 35.20 will open up another leg down to mid 34’s as waning demand remains the focus. Copper continued to see some choppy price action with a bias lower. Buyers are still soaking up selling pressure although sellers are holding lower levels. Price is now down at a zone which has previously seen action from buyers and found support so we will be watching to see if the level can hold. USD volatility will be the main driver as we do not expect to much commitment from either buyers or sellers ahead of the US election result.
Cryptocurrencies managed to grind their way back up over the weekend after finding some pressure into the end of the week. Bitcoin is holding higher lows and is set for another push higher which will support Ethereum and Ripple. Bitcoin is currently trading at $13833.7 up 0.41% while Ethereum is at $390.59 up 1.25% and Ripple is at $0.24035 up 0.14%.
The ASX200 held up well for most of the session Friday but did make a late push lower into the close to end down 32.7 points to 5927.6. Increasing global covid cases and US election uncertainty has new buyers remaining on the sidelines while traders lock in some gains. The IT and Industrials sectors weighed on the market while Financials and Energy found some bargain hunters after the previous sessions fall. Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 767 to 508 and 350 ended unchanged.
The ASX200 is expected to open up 50 points from the SPI200 close Saturday morning although the strong open will be muted due to England lockdowns.
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ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEST)
AUD MI Inflation Gauge 11am
AUD ANZ Job Adverts and Building Approvals 11:30am
CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI 12:45pm
EUR German Final Manufacturing PMI 7:55pm
EUR Final Manufacturing PMI 8pm
GBP Final Manufacturing PMI 8:30pm
CAD Manufacturing PMI 1:30am
USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 2am
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SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH
