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OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR MONDAY 9/11/20
- SPI200 (Sept) overnight futures up 15 pts to 6202
- SP500 down 1.01 pts to 3509.44
- NASDAQ up 4.30 pts to 11,895.23
- Dow Jones down 66.78 pts to 28,323.40
- FTSE100 up 3.84 pts to 5910.02
- DAX30 down 88.07 pts to 12,480.02
- GOLD futures US session (Dec) up $4.70 to $1951.50 an ounce
- COPPER futures (Comex Dec) up $0.0400 to $3.1500 a pound
- OIL futures US Session (Nymex Dec) down $1.65 to $37.14 a barrel
- CRB Index down 1.46 pts to 147.70
- AUDUSD trading at 0.7258
- EURUSD trading at 1.1874
- GBPUSD trading at 1.3156
- USDJPY trading at 103.3500
- USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) down 0.219 to 92.297
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US indexes ended the week on a relatively flat note as the elections remained in the balance and sellers capped the main indexes at previous session highs while buyers were tentative. Over the weekend it was announced that Biden will be the new US president but it seems that Trump will not go down without a fight. The Congress status quo will remain the same with Republicans regaining control fending off a ‘blue sweep’ which does bring into question stimulus if recent history is anything to go by. Expect that this will be high on the agenda for the new President but he does not take office for a while yet so there may be a bit of a leadership void at a time when covid-19 cases are spiking. Trumps apathy towards the virus may leave the new president to inherit a bigger problem than expected if Trumps team does not address it soon. There will be a lot for traders to assess in coming weeks before even thinking about issues related to trade and how Bidens administration will tackle China and Europe. We expect that it will benefit ties with Europe but may not change much with China in the near term. The DOW closed down 0.24% while the broader SP500 ended down 0.03% and the Nasdaq closed up 0.04% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes were mixed with the German DAX Index coming under selling pressure and taking the shine off the recent rally. Traders were not willing to add risk as they faced election unknowns and rising virus cases.
The USD Index moved lower during the European session and managed to find some buyers through US trade to put a floor in the action after US employment data came out a lot better than expected. The dollar looks set to keep grinding out new lows as long as the 92.800 zone holds as a lower high. There will be a lot to think about now with Stimulus and a potential timeframe for further aid. The EURUSD ran up into previous highs around 1.1875 where sellers stepped in to defend the level. The reaction lower may be more due to buyers locking in some gains than a change of trend lower as key support at 1.1793 is holding. We may see minor levels at 1.1850 tested as some more heat comes out of the rally. The GBPUSD struggled up at highs initially at 1.3140 then up at 1.3170 before edging lower into the US close. If the 1.3100 level can hold then the action may see some further upward pressure in the near term. The AUDUSD spent the European and US sessions consolidating the recent gains up from 0.7160 to hold around 0.7267 zone. If the US holds the lows and starts to edge lower then expect to see more upside pressure into the Aussie. The USDJPY continued to see selling pressure thanks to the USD movement. There were some spikes in price from buyers although we expect that the pressure lower will continue until there is a clearer picture into stimulus and the USD.
SPOT GOLD saw a bit of choppy price action after the previous few bullish sessions and gave back some of the gains. Price held a retest of the breakout zone around 1935 so this is the line in the sand for the bulls. If the level can hold then expect to see some higher prices if weakness into the USD continues. Crude Oil did not see any love from buyers into the weekend as price came under selling pressure off the 39.00 round number. This may be a heads up for more weakness to come if virus cases continue to rise as expectations will be for a fall in demand. We expect to see support around 36.50 tested in the near term. Copper found some support from the dollar weakness and moved up off the 3.1000 area. Expect to see some heat come out of the recent move up but we do expect to see another spike higher toward the 3.2000 area if the 3.1300 level can hold.
Cryptocurrencies charged higher over the weekend to drag in new buyers. Bitcoin cracked the $15000 mark and is currently trading at $15400.6 up 4.83% while Ethereum is at $451.80 up 3.15% and Ripple is trading at $0.25434 up 2.76%.
The ASX200 opened strong Friday and managed to hold the gains into the close to end up 50.6 points to 6190.2. The move backed up a good week on the index to make back the previous losses and test the important 6200 level again. Many bulls will be watching this level closely ready to add risk to the market on a clear break of the zone. The big movers were in the Gold, Metals and Mining and Materials sectors as weakness continued into the USD. Rising stocks outnumbered declining ones by 845 to 425 and 317 ended unchanged.
The ASX200 is expected to open up 10 points as the bulls eye the 6200 level for a break.
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ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEST)
EUR German Trade Balance 6pm
EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks 8:25pm
GBP BOE Gov Bailey Speaks 9:35pm
USD FOMC Member Mester Speaks 5:30am
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SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH
