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OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR MONDAY 16/11/20
- SPI200 (Sept) overnight futures up 51 pts to 6446
- SP500 up 48.14 pts to 3585.15
- NASDAQ up 119.70 pts to 11,829.29
- Dow Jones up 399.64 pts to 29,479.81
- FTSE100 down 22.55 pts to 6316.39
- DAX30 up 23.77 pts to 13,076.72
- GOLD futures US session (Dec) up $14.90 to $1888.20 an ounce
- COPPER futures (Comex Dec) up $0.0375 to $3.1825 a pound
- OIL futures US Session (Nymex Dec) down $0.99 to $40.13 a barrel
- CRB Index down 1.16 pts to 151.86
- AUDUSD trading at 0.7270
- EURUSD trading at 1.1834
- GBPUSD trading at 1.3189
- USDJPY trading at 104.6300
- USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) down 0.246 to 92.710
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US indexes reversed the previous sessions weakness as bulls clung on to hope that a Biden government will not go into a nationwide lockdown even as numbers surge. President-elect Joe Biden’s pandemic advisory board said there was no plan to enact a nation-wide shutdown which helped to support the positive sentiment thanks to some upbeat earnings from Cisco and Walt Disney. The recent news of the vaccine has kept the risk on mood flowing but the surging virus numbers had some concerned there were more lockdowns to come but that has now been taken off the table for now. The US yield curve steepened Friday as traders start to factor in rising longer term yields meaning higher inflation and borrowing costs down the track. This may be a problem if the labour market remains sluggish. The DOW closed up 1.37% while the broader SP500 ended up 1.36% and the Nasdaq closed up 1.02% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes ended the session flat as rising virus cases kept new buyers on the sidelines. Traders will be starting to assess the damage to the economy as substantial restrictions take a toll on daily life and economic activity.
The USD Index continued to edge lower and is showing signs of clearing out recent higher lows as bears step up the pressure. If that is the case, expect to see another push towards the 92 zone in coming days. For now the 92.600 area is the key for bulls. The EURUSD continues its grind higher as the dollar finds weakness. The move up is not at all convincing and looks laboured. Resistance is around 1.1838 which may bring in sellers but it will of course depend on the USD movements for the session. Longer term, there is still strong resistance up at 1.1885 which has buyers concerned. The GBPUSD was supported off the 1.3100 zone as buyers stepped back into the action. The move up is being anchored at 1.3153 and we see the near term potential for an extension up to recent highs around 1.3300. The AUDUSD bounced back as the dollar fell and the US rallied in to the close. Longer term, a move up to highs will depend on the USD. In the short term we may see some heat come out of Friday nights rally if the 0.7275 area holds. The USDJPY continued lower as the dollar fell and the YEN found a safe haven bid against other major currency pairs. The move down is being anchored at 105.150 and price is extended in the short term. We may see a grind higher and then another lower high hold for continuation down towards the 104.150 zone.
SPOT GOLD found a bid thanks to the weakness into the USD and also a safe haven bid may be creeping into the action as the bond market suggests inflation. Higher inflation may give stock traders pause as shares have become expensive on the stimulus fueled rally. There is still some room to move for yields as they remain at historically low levels. Gold may add to the gains today if the 1883 zone holds. Crude Oil prices fell even as the USD moved lower with sellers ramped up the pressure. Libyan output rose at a time when traders are focusing on the potential for global demand to fall. In the short term buyers may step in around the 39.50 level or lower around 39.00. Copper also found buyers as price was supported by the dollar weakness. If the dollar comes under further pressure today then Copper may extend on the gains into highs around 3.2060. If not, then expect to see an unwind of buyers.
Cryptocurrencies came under pressure over the weekend to give up the gains from Friday night. Bitcoin is currently trading at $15862.3 down 0.80% while Ethereum is at $443.75 down 3.80% and Ripple is at $0.26759 down 0.18%.
The ASX200 started the session Friday under pressure but buyers managed to defend the lows and push price higher into the close. The index ended the day down 13 points to 6405.2 with the Utilities and Energy sectors being the biggest drag on the bulls while the gold sector fought back from a rough few days to end up 4.47%. Rising stocks outnumbered declining ones by 675 to 585 and 333 ended unchanged.
The ASX200 is expected to open up 50 points and drag in some buyers on the open after the SPI200 rallied into the US close.
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ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEDT)
CNY Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Unemployment Rate 1pm
AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks 7:40pm
EUR ECB Financial Stability Review 8pm
EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks 12am
USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 12:30am
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SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH
