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OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR MONDAY 23/11/20
- SPI200 (Sept) overnight futures up 34 pts to 6568
- SP500 down 24.33 pts to 3557.54
- NASDAQ down 49.74 pts to 11,854.97
- Dow Jones down 219.75 pts to 29,263.48
- FTSE100 up 17.10 pts to 6351.45
- DAX30 up 51.09 pts to 13,137.25
- GOLD futures US session (Dec) up $8.10 to $1869.60 an ounce
- COPPER futures (Comex Dec) up $0.0890 to $3.2910 a pound
- OIL futures US Session (Nymex Jan) up $0.52 to $42.42 a barrel
- CRB Index up 1.13 pts to 156.16
- AUDUSD trading at 0.7302
- EURUSD trading at 1.1857
- GBPUSD trading at 1.3275
- USDJPY trading at 103.8600
- USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) up 0.109 to 92.393
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US indexes ended the week with a minor selloff as buyers took some risk off the table into the close ahead of the weekend. Traders reacted to the lack of aid for the economy and the rising rate of infections across the country. US Bond yields fell and have now given back all the gains made on the back of the positive vaccine news. The positive is that tech stocks are still holding strong and not seeing the profit taking that many expected. Investors are even moving into small caps and emerging market stocks as they anticipate the improving conditions for the global economy. The DOW closed down 0.75% while the broader SP500 ended down 0.68% and the Nasdaq closed down 0.42% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes were lifted to end the week on a positive note and were supported by commodity linked stocks. Stronger metals prices and expectations for growing demand from China helped to supported the metals and mining sectors while energy also did well on the continued strength in oil.
The USD Index moved lower into the start of the European session before finding buyers happy to lift price up off support. From there, price found more range bound action but did manage to end the US session up on its highs. If the Dollar pushes up through 92.450 today then we may see a run up to the 92.600 area tonight. The question remains on the level of further aid and when that may be likely to happen. For the short term, support may be in place. The EURUSD did run higher but could not get through resistance at 1.1890. Price fell away from the level and is holding minor lower levels. If buyers do not step in to support current levels around 1.1850, then we may see a run lower to test 1.1820 and below. If they can hold 1.1850, then a higher low will be in place to support a run up through 1.1890. The GBPUSD saw a grind of a session as spikes lower were supported and price edged higher to end just below session highs. There really was no love from either bulls or bears as Brexit continues to be the focus. Expect that buyers will continue to support pullbacks and push price to previous highs around 1.3310 with the lack of any news or USD movement as a directional catalyst. The AUDUSD managed to edge higher although continues to find sellers up towards the 0.7330 zone. Sellers stepped into the Aussie as US share indexes drifted lower and the USD pushed higher. If the dollar continues up today then we can expect to see the Aussie move down towards the 0.7260 lows. The USDJPY pretty much flatlined through all sessions and had a very narrow range for the day. Price action was supported off the 103.700 area and held done around 103.900. Do not expect to much love today either with a Bank holiday in Japan.
SPOT GOLD worked its way up off support around the 1855 area but still fell short of the key 1883 zone that is holding the action down. Buyers continue to be dictated to by the USD and will not be happy until the dollar breaks down through support. Crude Oil remains in the broad channel and worked its way up off minor higher levels but did lack commitment from buyers. There is minor resistance at 42.67 and support around 41.64. Copper was all one way action with buyers pressing prices higher into the close of the US and extended up into major highs around 3.3000 from June 2018. We do expect to see some reaction from sellers and for some buyers to lock in some gains but the trend up remains strong for now thanks to increasing demand.
Cryptocurrencies had a big run higher over the weekend as they start to accelerate. Bitcoin is currently trading at $18643.4 down 0.32% while Ethereum is at $573.95 up 5.56% and Ripple is at $0.48210 up 14.24%.
The ASX200 had a rather lackluster session Friday with neither bulls or bears willing to commit to the market. The action pushed higher after the open but could not hold onto the gains and fell back down to where it started, into the close. The index ended the day down 8 points to 6539.2 with the Energy sector coming under the most pressure while Gold and Materials were also in the red. Rising stocks outnumbered declining ones by 678 to 571 and 372 ended unchanged.
The ASX200 is expected to open up 35 points after the SPI200 pushed into new short term highs just prior to the US close.
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ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEDT)
AUD Flash Manufacturing PMI 9am
JPY Bank Holiday
EUR French Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI 7:15pm
EUR German Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI 7:30pm
EUR Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI 8pm
GBP Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI 8:30pm
USD Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI 1:45am
GBP Monetary Policy Report Hearings 2:30am
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SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH
