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OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR THURSDAY 26/11/20 (as at 8am AEDT)
- SPI200 (Sept) overnight futures down 3 pts to 6674
- SP500 down 5.32 pts to 3630.09
- NASDAQ up 57.62 pts to 12,094.40
- Dow Jones down 173.83 pts to 29,872.41
- FTSE100 down 41.08 pts to 6391.09
- DAX30 down 2.64 pts to 13,289.80
- GOLD futures US session (Dec) up $0.90 to $1805.50 an ounce
- COPPER futures (Comex Dec) up $0.0135 to $3.3130 a pound
- OIL futures US Session (Nymex Jan) up $0.85 to $45.76 a barrel
- CRB Index up 0.59 pts to 160.39
- AUDUSD trading at 0.7368
- EURUSD trading at 1.1921
- GBPUSD trading at 1.3387
- USDJPY trading at 104.4400
- USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) down 0.265 to 91.955
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US indexes saw some heat come out of the recent rally ahead of the long weekend after weaker than expected unemployment claims data. Prices opened lower and then went sideways after data showed that Unemployment claims came out higher than expected for another week which threw a wet blanket on the vaccine news induced rally. The benefits are set to expire on Dec 26th which means many will be left with no funds if Congress can not agree on another stimulus package soon. The ‘stay at home’ stocks did well as the Nasdaq was supported by bulls from the open. The move lower on the DOW was more of a profit taking scenario than due to any fear based selling as buyers still have further aid that will eventually hit the market….I expect that the USD printers are just in need of a service before being turned on again!! The DOW closed down 0.58% while the broader SP500 ended down 0.15% and the Nasdaq closed up 0.48% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes remain tentative up near major highs as prices moved lower off a strong open. Like the US, buyers were happy to lock in some gains after the recent rally as the vaccine news fades. Support remains in place for now so the buyers are expected to step back in over coming sessions.
The USD Index continued to edge lower into major support after employment data had traders factoring in more stimulus. Price now looks set to extend the move down to test previous lows around 91.800. We still do not expect the dollar to break down for another trend lower as it will be a ‘buy the rumour sell the fact’ move as traders position for a respectable size aid package. Also, a lot of the uncertainty has been taken out of the market being left with the Fed making sure that funding remains cheap which is also pressuring the dollar….but they are happy to stay the course for now while looking ahead to easing the bond buying program. The EURUSD pushed higher to extend on the previous sessions gains as the USD weakened. Price flushed out highs at 1.1919 so the question now is whether there will be further gains to be had or whether sellers will move the pair lower triggering buyers to lock in some gains. The GBPUSD continued higher being supported by Brexit hopes and dollar weakness. Price tested the 1.3310 zone early in the European session before moving up off the level into previous highs. Expect to see the highs breached today and buyers attempt to continue the action higher. The AUDUSD also retested lows before a rally into the close. The Aussie continues to benefit from the risk on trade and the weaker USD as commodities generally rally. The AUD has put in a higher low at 0.7325 so expect bulls to extend the move up. The USDJPY edged its way lower but does look set to clear out recent sellers on a move up. This would suggest traders expect to see a pop in the USD. If the 104.256 level can hold then watch for a higher low to bring in buyers.
SPOT GOLD remains under pressure as buyers stay on the sidelines for now. There is no safe haven bid into the precious metal and the weakness into the USD is doing little to stem the tide of selling. Bulls will be watching the 1790/1815 area for support but will need to let the action play out and provide evidence that buyers are soaking up the sellers at higher levels before they can expect a lift off the zone. If not we will see further weakness that may lead to a move down through 1700. Crude Oil has pushed up and out of the rising channel in a sign of strength. Buyers are holding higher levels with the anchor to the trend up at 45.00 for now. Copper continues to oscillate around major highs and is starting to show some signs that sellers are looking to squeeze out some buyers with a push lower. For now, the trend up is in tact until we see a lower high build to bring in sellers and pressure prices lower.
Cryptocurrencies were lower with Ripple taking a hit which would be expected after such a strong move up the previous session. Bitcoin is currently trading at $18874.5 down 0.99% while Ethereum is at $580.86 down 4.5% and Ripple is at $0.63108 down 13.14%.
The ASX200 opened stronger yesterday and then meandered sideways until the close. In the end the index ended up 39.2 points or 0.59% to 6683.3 giving up 10 points at the 4:10pm close…the second session in a row. The rally was supported by ‘blue chip’ buyer many others found selling pressure off the open. The Energy sector was again a standout while Financials and Resources were not far behind. Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 714 to 594 and 347 ended unchanged.
The ASX200 is expected to open flat after the SPI200 finished the overnight session where it started.
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ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEDT)
AUD Private Capital Expenditure 11:30am
EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts 11:30pm
USD Bank Holiday
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SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH
