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OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR FRIDAY 4/12/20
- SPI200 (Sept) overnight futures down 7 pts to 6611
- SP500 down 7.09 pts to 3661.92
- NASDAQ up 27.82 pts to 12,377.18
- Dow Jones up 85.73 pts to 29,969.52
- FTSE100 up 26.88 pts to 6490.27
- DAX30 down 60.38 pts to 13,252.86
- GOLD futures US session (Dec) up $15.30 to $1841.00 an ounce
- COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) down $0.0115 to $3.4775 a pound
- OIL futures US Session (Nymex Jan) up $0.26 to $45.54 a barrel
- CRB Index down 0.11 pts to 159.31
- AUDUSD trading at 0.7439
- EURUSD trading at 1.2143
- GBPUSD trading at 1.3449
- USDJPY trading at 103.8800
- USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) down 0.427 to 90.688
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US indexes were supported on the open thanks to better than expected weekly jobless claims but then again…any reason is a reason to buy at the moment. Markets rallied from the open and managed to hold gains into the close to set up for another solid end to the week. Other data showed that the services industry activity slowed to a six month low being hampered by increased business restrictions. The pressure continues to rise for Congress to get their act together and pass another aid package which we do expect to happen by years end…if politicians can stop bickering long enough to come to an agreement. The DOW closed up 0.29% while the broader SP500 ended down 0.19% and the Nasdaq closed up 0.23% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes were again mixed with both the DAX and the FTSE continuing on from where they left off the previous session….FTSE up and DAX down. Buoyant materials stocks helped to offset the negative mood from downbeat business activity data from the region and Brexit trade deal uncertainty.
The USD Index was again pushed lower through the European session before finding some buyers into the US open. Price action continues to expand lower as bears have their eyes firmly on a break of 90.000 and potentially into 89.000. The EURUSD moved up to continue the inverse relationship with the USD. Price held higher levels with little resistance from sellers. Bulls have eyes on the 1.2400 zone which are highs from April 2018. Price is extended but, like the USD, the trend is well entrenched so no need to fight the flow of the action. Buyers will have one eye on the ECB as they are unhappy with the continued strength into the Euro and may soon take some action to curb the bulls. The GBPUSD was all one way action from the start of the Asian session until late in US trade as buyers ramped price higher to touch on the 1.3500 area before gains were locked in to trigger the only pullback for the session. The previous sessions move lower ended up being a big flush of buyers ahead of the ramp so we will be watching to see how committed the bulls are and whether they will hold a higher low from here. The AUDUSD continued to be a proxy for risk appetite as bulls keep charging higher and share markets gain. Price action continues to hold higher lows and buyers will not be put under any pressure until higher lows are broken. The short term anchor now to the trend up is at 0.7410. The USDJPY was finally hit hard to play catch up with the dollar weakness. Price did react lower as expected off the 104.700 zone but moved harder than expected as it seems that YEN found some buyers as shorts were covered.
SPOT GOLD continued to grind higher as the dollar fell. Minor higher levels were held but did lack conviction from buyers which is expected after the recent run lower. Price action held a spike lower into 1823 which may drag in more buyers although the move up is running out of momentum so a retest of the lows may be on the cards. More importantly will be how buyers react on the retest around 1800 and whether they can hold a key higher low and trigger confidence back into bulls. Crude Oil initially moved lower before being supported at 44.70 to hold a key higher level. Price moved back up to 45.70 into the US close and we expect that the higher low will support a break of resistance in the near term and trigger a move through 46.25 highs. Copper retested previous highs at 3.5185 before moving lower into the US close. Price momentum is running out of steam and that, along with the overnight failure at the highs, may lead to a correction lower and some heat to come out of the recent rally.
Cryptocurrencies moved higher but the bullish action was generally capped into previous highs. Bitcoin is currently trading at $19351.2 up 1.33% while Ethereum is at back above 600 at $611.13 up 2.38% and Ripple is at $0.62559 up 1.17%.
The ASX200 again opened strong yesterday but unlike the session prior, bulls managed to hold the gains into the close. The Index ended the day up 25.1 points, slightly off the days highs, to close at 6615.3. The Metals and Mining sector was flying up 4.64%, while Resources and Materials were not far behind. Iron Ore stocks did well as Iron prices continue to rally on the weaker USD and as demand increases. Rising stocks outnumbered declining ones by 665 to 588 and 346 ended unchanged.
The ASX200 is expected to open down 10 points although we expect bulls to step in to support the ASX after the open.
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ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEDT)
AUD Retail Sales 11:30am
EUR German Factory Orders 6pm
GBP MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks 8:30pm
CAD Employment Change and Unemployment Rate 12:30am
USD Trade Balance, Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate 12:30am
USD Factory Orders 2am
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SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH
