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OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR THURSDAY 10/12/20
- SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures down 25 pts to 6702
- SP500 down 27.11 pts to 3675.14
- NASDAQ down 243.82 pts to 12,338.95
- Dow Jones down 105.07 pts to 30,068.81
- FTSE100 up 5.47 pts to 6564.29
- DAX30 up 61.77 pts to 13,340.26
- GOLD futures US session (Dec) down $38.40 to $1832.40 an ounce
- COPPER futures US session (Comex Mar) down $0.0005 to $3.4985 a pound
- OIL futures US Session (Nymex Jan) up $0.01 to $45.60 a barrel
- CRB Index up 0.64 pts to 158.92
- AUDUSD trading at 0.7441
- EURUSD trading at 1.2082
- GBPUSD trading at 1.3404
- USDJPY trading at 104.2100
- USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) up 0.060 to 91.028
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US indexes saw a bout of profit taking to move lower off recent all time highs. Traders are still awaiting some positive news on stimulus talks to support the rally but it seems that Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is standing in the way. Even though Biden has won elections, he has not won Congress and getting a deal done on stimulus will have to be on the Republicans terms which will mean more ‘politics’ and stalling. It seems that the market is expecting that and locked away some gains ahead of time. The number of job openings increased although that is expected to take a hit from restrictions in California and continue to pressure the labour market. The NASDAQ also took a hit after the negativity into Facebook over an antitrust lawsuit flowed into other tech stocks. The DOW closed down 0.35% while the broader SP500 ended down 0.73% and the Nasdaq closed down 1.94% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes were up for the session although well off early session highs as make or break Brexit trade talks weighed on the action. Also, stimulus negotiations in the US have traders attention as they also continue to stall.
The USD Index moved up off recent lows on some safe haven buying and as sellers were forced to re-assess their positions as Congress is unable to come to a stimulus agreement. Price pushed up to previous highs around 91.200 before finding some minor selling into the close. If congress continue to go back and forth then we expect more buyers will lock in some gains and pressure prices higher and potentially pressure share markets lower. The EURUSD played out nicely on the break of 1.2100 as sellers jumped into the action on a strengthening USD forcing some buyers to be squeezed out. Price remains in a longer term uptrend so expect to see some buying come back in to the action around 1.2044 or 1.2000. The GBPUSD continues to be choppy with all eyes on Brexit talks. The longer term daily resistance zone around 1.3450 continues to cap rallies although buyers have been supported by recent weakness into the USD. Unless the USD spikes higher, expect the choppy theme to continue until we see a clearer picture on Brexit which is expected in coming days. The AUDUSD swung with the fortunes of the share market as price moved higher in the European session only to be knocked back down in US trade as shares came under pressure. Traders were happy to take some risk off the table once the dollar rallied. The longer term trend up remains in tact with support to come in around 0.7405. The USDJPY was supported by the dollar rally although some safe haven YEN buying come into play late in the session as share Indexes were under pressure and the dollar backed off from session highs. Price remains in an uptrend although bulls are lacking conviction and a break below 104.060 will trigger some stops and a move lower.
SPOT GOLD took a hit on the USD rally and the risk continues to be for a major dollar correction higher. Buyers were quick to lock in gains off 1870 as lower highs started to come into play. If the 1825 area can not hold as support then expect to see a move down to retest the 1800 area and potentially lower. Technically, the failure off 1875 is not a good sign for bulls and they will need to make a stand above 1800 to fend off longer term weakness. Crude Oil was looking good with buyers making a run higher up until the US opened and weakness crept into the action. Price spiked lower but buyers are still lingering and soaking up selling pressure. If price can not hold the 45.10 zone or 44.75, then we may see a bigger unwind of late buyers and a move through 44.00. Vaccine hopes will continue to provide some support so expect that the action will be choppy as bulls and bears fight it out. Copper traded in the same manner as oil and edged lower with buyers happy to take some risk off the table. Price action is starting to look more range bound as traders are caught between short term negative news and longer term positives.
Cryptocurrencies again moved lower although did stem the tide of sellers off support zones to keep the longer term trends in tact. Bitcoin is currently trading at $18423.5 down 1.73% while Ethereum is at $575.75 up 2.01% and Ripple is at $0.58151 up 2.28%. Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 858 to 423 and 345 ended unchanged.
The ASX200 continued its march higher yesterday as buyers opened strong and held the gains into the close. In the end the index finished up 40.8 points to 6728.5 with the IT sector being the shining light and Telcom Services and Utilities not far behind. Rising stocks outnumbered declining ones on the Sydney Stock Exchange by 653 to 649 and 359 ended unchanged.
The ASX200 is expected to open down 30 points to pressure traders on the open after weakness crept into the US session.
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ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEDT)
AUD RBA Bulletin 11:30am
GBP Goods Trade Balance, Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production 6pm
EUR Day 1 EU Economic Summit
EUR Main Refinancing Rate and Monetary Policy Statement 11:45pm
EUR ECB Press Conference 12:30am
USD CPI Data and Unemployment Claims 12:30am
USD Federal Budget Balance 6am
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SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH
