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OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR THURSDAY 11/12/20
- SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures down 34 pts to 6652
- SP500 up 1.01 pts to 3673.83
- NASDAQ up 66.86 pts to 12,405.81
- Dow Jones down 69.55 pts to 29,999.26
- FTSE100 up 35.47 pts to 6599.76
- DAX30 down 44.53 pts to 13,295.73
- GOLD futures US session (Dec) up $1.50 to $1836.10 an ounce
- COPPER futures US session (Comex Mar) up $0.0665 to $3.5800 a pound
- OIL futures US Session (Nymex Jan) up $1.38 to $46.90 a barrel
- CRB Index up 2.47 pts to 161.39
- AUDUSD trading at 0.7535
- EURUSD trading at 1.2140
- GBPUSD trading at 1.3291
- USDJPY trading at 104.2300
- USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) down 0.286 to 90.797
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US indexes edged lower all session as stimulus talks stall and virus cases continue to go up. Data out showed a jump in jobless claims as the country applies further restrictions and people get laid off work. The Jobs data highlights the need for another stimulus package sooner rather than later to support businesses and the unemployed and news headlines suggest it is getting closer after Mnuchin said talks between Republican and Democratic senators were making “a lot of progress”. On the vaccine front, a meeting is being held of outside advisers and the FDA to decide whether or not to authorize Pfizer Inc’s COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use. Some officials suggest that vaccinations could begin as early as this weekend. All in all, the mixed news is seeing traders holding off from putting further risk on and the markets are in a lull. The DOW closed down 0.23% while the broader SP500 ended up 0.03% and the Nasdaq closed up 0.54% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes were initially supported as the ECB delivered stimulus as expected but were hit into the close as the central bank warned of a slower rebound in growth next year although lifted forecasts for 2022. The FTSE did well as energy and materials stocks led the charge higher with strength into Oil, copper and iron ore. Still no breakthrough on Brexit as both sides refuse to come to an agreement. Even though it looks likely that there will be no deal, leaders have given themselves until the end of the weekend…they just need another boozy weekend to get things done.
The USD Index took a hit on the back of the ECB news on stimulus as the Euro rallied. Sellers also jumped into the action on news that a stimulus package may be close and hit the market before Christmas. Buyers did step in to support price around the 90.710 area but if the talks progress and the package is expected to be significant then we expect a retest down to lows around 90.500. The EURUSD pressed higher finding minor support off the 1.2083 zone as buyers ramped price up through recent highs at 1.2147. The action was supported by stimulus news and the action suggests some traders were expecting a much larger package and more concern over growth from the ECB. If the USD dollar holds above support then expect the Euro to be capped below 1.2175. The GBPUSD came under pressure as Brexit talks were delayed again. The chop continues as expectations are that a deal is close but the more it drags on the less likely it will be done. Traders may be starting to factor such a scenario into the market as bounces are getting shallower and corrections lower are getting deeper. Either way, price is well and truly capped at the 1.3450 zone unless the weekend can prove fruitful for Brexit. The AUDUSD went straight up all day as if traders news something with regards to USD weakness. Price went risk on thanks to increasing optimism for the global economy and no more rate cut expectations…the RBA could or would not anyway. Rising commodity prices are also supporting the Aussie although price is extended in the short term so may see some corrective action lower off highs. The USDJPY moved lower back down to support on dollar weakness. Price is hovering around 104.200 which buyers will need to hold for continuation higher. If the level can not hold, we are watching for a lower high and move down to 103.750 lows.
SPOT GOLD continued to come under pressure even as the USD faded in US trade. Price was supported on dips towards the 1824 support zone but remains under pressure and on the cusp of another breakdown through 1825 towards 1800 after 1850 was rejected. Crude Oil held up nicely above the 45.10 area and spiked through recent highs around 46.50 as vaccine news supported expectations for rising demand. Price did pullback from the highs so we will be watching to see if buyers step in to support higher levels. Copper also rallied hard as the USD come under pressure and vaccine news helped bulls. Price managed to consolidate the highs into the close to keep the copper bull run well and truly alive.
Cryptocurrencies were mixed as sellers remain active and Bitcoin tested recent lows. Bitcoin is currently trading at $18376.4 up 0.24% while Ethereum is at $565.20 down 1.58% and Ripple is at $0.57685 up 0.34%.
The ASX200 had a rough session yesterday to move back below the 6700 level and give up the previous sessions gains. At the close the Index was down 45.4 points to 6683.1 with the Gold (down 3.56%) and IT (down 2.09%) sectors taking the brunt of the selling pressure. Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 858 to 423 and 345 ended unchanged.
The ASX200 is expected to open down 35 points as the US gives up a positive open and faded into the close.
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ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEDT)
EUR German Final CPI 6pm
GBP BOE Financial Stability Report 6pm
GBP BOE Gov Bailey Speaks 7:30pm
EUR Euro Summit
EUR EU Economic Summit Day 2
USD PPI Data 1:30am
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SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH
