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OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR MONDAY 14/12/20
- SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures down 1 pts to 6630
- SP500 down 4.64 pts to 3663.46
- NASDAQ down 27.94 pts to 12,377.87
- Dow Jones up 47.11 pts to 30,046.37
- FTSE100 down 53.01 pts to 6546.75
- DAX30 down 181.43 pts to 13,114.30
- GOLD futures US session (Dec) up $6.10 to $1839.70 an ounce
- COPPER futures US session (Comex Mar) down $0.0420 to $3.5340 a pound
- OIL futures US Session (Nymex Jan) down $0.21 to $46.57 a barrel
- CRB Index down 0.14 pts to 161.25
- AUDUSD trading at 0.7533
- EURUSD trading at 1.2112
- GBPUSD trading at 1.3224
- USDJPY trading at 104.0400
- USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) up 0.150 to 90.970
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US indexes started the session on the back foot following on from European weakness but managed to rally back mid session as bulls pushed prices higher into the close to make back some of the losses. Stimulus again weighed on the action as Pelosi raised the possibility that stimulus negotiations will drag on through Christmas. Traders are wondering why Congress continue to play politics rather than come to an agreement that seems inevitable and well needed. News over the weekend was more positive as a bipartisan group of lawmakers will unveil a $908 billion coronavirus pandemic relief bill today sometime which everyone seems to be happy with and are positive will get through Congress before holidays. The DOW closed up 0.16% while the broader SP500 ended down 0.13% and the Nasdaq closed down 0.23% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes were lower into the weekend as traders remained concerned over the fate of Brexit. Over the weekend it seems that both parties have decided to extend talks and negotiations for a deal as the Sunday deadline came and went. Markets also have floundered as they weigh up the latest hit to their economies from the resurgence of the virus.
In Vaccine news, hopes that many will receive a dose as early as today should support the market as US regulators late on Friday authorized emergency use of the vaccine and it starts to get shipped out from Pfizer’s manufacturing facility.
The USD Index found some safe haven buying through the European session Friday and managed to hold onto the gains into the close of the US session on the stimulus uncertainty. Price held up off recent support around the 90.630 zone but still remains locked in a downtrend. If price can break back up through 91.200, then a deeper correction is on the cards and some pressure off lows. The EURUSD came under fire after a push back up to the 1.2175 area where sellers jumped into the action on the dollar rally. Expect that the Euro will remained capped at 1.2175 and find buyers down around 1.2060 until the latest push for US stimulus is either confirmed of denied in Congress. The GBPUSD also took a hit on the dollar rally and continued to edge lower as Brexit remained elusive. Price did push down into a recent buy zone around 1.3130 and reacted higher as sellers locked in some gains. If price consolidates below the 1.3250 area then we may see another push down to test the lows. If traders are happy that there remains a possibility for a deal on Brexit even after an extension, then expect a big short squeeze and run higher. The AUDUSD sold lower off the highs as the Dollar rallied but managed to hold above 0.7523 which is the anchor holding up the trend from 0.7423. Expect that we may see some further pressure on the aussie if the 0.7523 breaks today. The USDJPY moved lower as buyers could not hold the 104.200 area in the Asian session. The pressure continued and a lower high held at 104.150 which is expected to hold if the dollar does not run higher and the YEN finds some safe haven buying today.
SPOT GOLD had another test down to the 1824 area but buyers managed to provide some support. Gold did trade straight up to 1847.50 off the lows before giving up some gains into the US close. If buyers step in again today around 1835/40 then we may see a push back up to 1847 and potentially a break. If not we expect that new lows through 1824 will be on the cards soon. Crude Oil edged lower off the previous sessions spike to 47.75. The action is expected as some heat comes out of the rally and support around 46.50 is retested. Copper was hit pretty hard in the Asian session to give up some recent gains although buyers still remain in control. Expect to see further volatility as longer term buyers lock in some gains on spikes.
Cryptocurrencies had a good weekend to rally up off the lows from the US close with Bitcoin adding over $1000. Bitcoin is currently trading at $19160.0 up 2.05% while Ethereum is at $588.66 up 3.56% and Ripple is at $0.51341 down 0.88%.
The ASX200 backed up Thursday with another rough day Friday to end the week on a sour note as the Index ended the session down 40.5 points to 6642.6. The Industrials, Consumer Discretionary and Financial sectors were the biggest drag on the Index while IT, Energy and Resources ended the day with gains. Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 639 to 630 and 365 ended unchanged.
The ASX200 is expected to open flat thanks to a late rally in the SPI200 into the US close.
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ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEDT)
JPY Tankan Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Index 10:50 am
EUR German WPI 6pm
EUR Industrial Production 9pm
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SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH
