The Morning Jumpstart Macro View

OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR THURSDAY 10/06/21 (as at 7:15am AEST)

  • SPI200 (Jun) overnight futures down 3 pts to 7272
  • SP500 down 7.71 pts to 4219.55
  • NASDAQ Composite down 13.16 points to 13911.75
  • Dow Jones down 152.68 pts to 34447.14
  • FTSE100 down 14.08 pts to 7081.01
  • DAX30 down 59.46 pts to 15581.14
  • GOLD futures US session (Aug) down $3.00 to $1891.40 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US session (Comex July) down $0.0400 to $4.5160 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex July) down $0.09 to $69.96 a barrel
  • CRB Index down 0.04 pts to 211.17
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.7730
  • EURUSD trading at 1.2180
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.4115
  • USDJPY trading at 109.6300
  • USD Index US Session (ICE Jun) up 0.054 to 90.130

US indexes were again sold lower from a stronger open in a tame session as traders await the inflation data due out tonight. Inflation and potential rate rises are the main focus of the markets at the moment and most of the upside has been factored into price already. In saying that, there is no reason yet to take risk off the table as the macro landscape remains the same so investors are in a holding pattern and volatility has died until the markets find a trigger for a move. Benchmark Treasury yields dropped below 1.5% for the first time since May and pointed to traders increasing expectation that inflation ‘is’ in fact transitory. Some of the move was attributed to traders being forced to unwind short positions in Treasuries. Talks on a bipartisan agreement on infrastructure spending has broken down as Republicans are pushing back on any tax hike leaving Biden to change course on ongoing negotiations. Meme stocks continued to be played by retail groups as they search for the next GME. The DOW closed down 0.44% while the broader SP500 ended down 0.18% and the Nasdaq closed down 0.09% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes also edged lower with the DAX seeing a risk off move down from all time highs as price breaks down out of the recent uptrending channel. New traders remained on the sidelines awaiting the policy decision from the ECB which is expected to remain unchanged and stimulus to continue. Travel and leisure stocks found support as many European economies move their way out of lockdowns.

The USD Index was choppy and seems to be moving to clear out traders on both sides of the market. Price moved back down below 89.900 in the European session before spiking straight back up to where it started on the US open. The recent moves are either showing some interest from buyers or less interest from sellers who are taking some risk off the table…either way it opens the door for a potentially volatile CPI release tonight. Expect to see the 89.900 level hold off sellers today while buyers are capped at 90.300. The EURUSD also saw some chop as stops are being triggered ahead of the ECB statement. Price spiked up off support to test 1.2215 before falling straight back down into the 1.2175 zone into the US close. Bulls may have been watching the Bank Of Canada (BOC) rate announcement for a ‘heads up’ for the ECB release and were disappointed when the BOC left rates unchanged and maintained quantitative easing. The GBPUSD saw some selling pressure as post Brexit tensions weighed on the currency. The pound slid as Britain and the EU failed to agree on solutions to trade problems in Northern Ireland. The Pound found resistance at 1.4188 before being sold down to 1.4110 into the close. We expect that price will flush the 1.4110 level but then retrace some of the more lower ahead of the ECB and US CPI tonight as sellers square up some shorts. The AUDUSD initially pushed up into the 0.7760 resistance zone before being knocked down to 0.7730 lows as the US share market came under pressure on the open. Price may look to further flush lower today if the ASX comes under pressure so watching the action around 0.7725 for sellers to pile in. The USDJPY spiked into the 109.200 level during the European session before finding a bid that spike price straight up and through 109.550 generally mirroring the USD move. Price was contained at 109.630 but we expect to see more upside pressure today to squeeze out some sellers.

SPOT GOLD lacked any direction from both bulls and bears in a thin market as price spiked up and down to clear out buyers and sellers intraday. We expect that the precious metal will continue its choppy action today and lack any directional move until the data release late in the European session tonight. For now we expect gold will hold spikes into 1883 and be capped at 1900. Crude Oil backed away from highs even as data showed inventories came out more negative than expected. Seems that a lot was already factored into price with the Iran situation. The data release will support price in the medium term and we expect that the move down was a risk off move and flush of short term buyers to clear the way for another potential move up. Watching to see if price holds up off the 69.00 level. Copper pulled back to test into the 4.5000 level and potentially hold the higher low that we are waiting for. Expect to see more buying ramp price higher if price moves up through 4.5365.

Cryptocurrencies moved higher as Bitcoin moved up off major lows to hold minor higher levels and give bulls something to cheer about. Bitcoin is currently trading at $36796.0 up 9.80% while Ethereum is at $2605.74 up 3.32% and Ripple is holding below a dollar at $0.89459 up 2.81%.

The ASX200 again opened higher yesterday only to drift lower during the session and end down on the lows of the day. The index closed down 22.4 points to 7270.2 with the Consumer Staples and Gold sectors taking the brunt of the selling while Utilities and Materials stocks ended with minor gains. Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 724 to 623 and 389 ended unchanged.

The ASX200 is expected to open down 5 points after the SPI200 drifted lower from the day sessions close in a relative range bound session.

ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEDT)

JPY PPI 9:50am

AUD MI Inflation Expectations 11am

EUR Monetary Policy Statement and Main Refinancing Rate 9:45pm

GBP MPC Member Haldane Speaks 10:05pm

EUR ECB Press Conference 10:30pm

USD CPI Data and Unemployment Rate 10:30pm

USD 30-yr Bond Auction 3:01am

USD Federal Budget Balance 4am

SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH