The Morning Jumpstart Macro View

OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR WEDNESDAY 30/06/21 (as at 7:15am AEST)

  • SPI200 (Sept) overnight futures up 33 pts to 7253
  • SP500 up 1.19 pts to 4291.80
  • NASDAQ Composite up 27.83 points to 14528.34
  • Dow Jones up 9.02 pts to 34292.29
  • FTSE100 up 14.58 pts to 7087.55
  • DAX30 up 136.41 pts to 15690.59
  • GOLD futures US session (Aug) down $19.10 to $1761.60 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US session (Comex July) down $0.0210 to $4.2575 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex July) up $0.07 to $72.98 a barrel
  • CRB Index up 0.38 pts to 211.32
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.7513
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1899
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.3843
  • USDJPY trading at 110.5500
  • USD Index US Session (ICE Sep) up 0.209 to 92.085

US indexes ended the session relatively flat after giving back minor gains from the open. Both the SP500 and the DOW opened stronger on the back of a positive European session but prices soon faded and drifted back down into the close. The Tech heavy Nasdaq opened flat and drifted higher as the bulk of investors were happy to remain on the sidelines into the end of the Quarter ahead of earnings which begin in July. New covid outbreaks capped the bullish sentiment as traders take stock of portfolios and await key employment data Friday to see if the Fed may be swayed to change their minds on the timeline for interest rate rises. US 10-year bond prices dipped during the European session but were quick to make back the losses in the US session to end relatively unchanged. Bonds may have seen a minor safe haven bid on concern for new covid cases through Asian and Australia as bulls pause on news over the new delta variant. The DOW closed up 0.03% while the broader SP500 ended up 0.03% and the Nasdaq closed up 0.19% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes ended the session higher to brush aside covid worries and focus on data that showed economic sentiment improved in June. Investors jumped into sectors that are more likely to benefit from the recovery such as Financial Services and Autos. Data showed that German inflation eased which took pressure off the rate rise narrative.

The USD Index continued to find a safe haven bid as price pushed above the 92.000 level. Traders are becoming more concerned over the new delta variant of the coronavirus and see the potential of a derailing of the economic recovery. Traders are also focusing on the coming employment data report, which if strong, may change the tune of the Fed and lift the USD further. Price is heading into resistance at 92.350 if it can break up through 92.120. If price breaks back below 92.000 then we expect to see a squeeze on recent buyers and press lower. The EURUSD pressed lower as the dollar rallied. The move down does not look too convincing so a break up through 1.1910 will drag in some buyers to squeeze out recent sellers….as long as the USD moves down. The GBPUSD flushed into support as expected and continues to look weak as buyers hold lower levels. Price put in a low around the 1.3814 level so buyers will be watching any push back into the level carefully for signs of either continuation lower or whether bulls will defend the level. A push up through 1.3852 may trigger a short squeeze and move up off support. The AUDUSD as a proxy for risk appetite, came under pressure during European trade and traded straight down. Buyers remained on the sidelines being concerned over new lockdowns in Australia, leaving sellers to close price on its lows. We expect to see price target previous lows today towards the 0.7494 or 0.7480 areas if 0.7507 can not hold. The USDJPY was again choppy as price saw spikes higher being sold into by bears. The dollar strength is being offset by Yen buying but we see price generally being on the backfoot and looking to test lower.

SPOT GOLD is not showing any sign of a safe haven bid from increasing virus concerns and is under pressure from the USD rise. Price spiked into the 1750 area before recovering some of the losses into the close. The move may have been a stop loss hunt and clean out of buyers built up from 21st June which would suggest a move up from here. Either way, bulls will need to lift their game and provide some support to stem the tide of a deeper correction lower. Crude Oil bulls managed to defend a flush into the 72.50 level which supports the premise for a continued move up longer term. Price action held a minor higher low into the close around 72.71 so bulls will want to see this level hold today for a potential test above 74.00. Copper broke down through 4.2625 in Asian and European trade before bouncing back in the US session. Price put in a low around 4.2030 which we would want to see hold and a higher low build for a run up. Price action remains caught between selling due to a shorter term correction and buying as the longer term rally remains in tact as long as 3.9500 holds.

Cryptocurrencies found buying to move higher as Bitcoin pushed above resistance in European trade to set the positive tone for the remaining session. Bitcoin is currently trading at $36142 up 5.01% while Ethereum is at $2187.90 up 4.30% and Ripple is at $0.70323 up 9.12%.

The ASX200 had a strange day yesterday with a strong selloff early only to find bulls bounce right back to claw back the losses into the close. The index rallied around 60 points off the session lows to end down 6.1 points to 7301.2. The Utilities sector took the biggest hit followed by Energy and Gold while IT ended higher. We expect that the strong reversal off the lows may trigger some more bullish action in the near term for the index. Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 779 to 569 and 428 ended unchanged.

The ASX200 is expected to open up 30 points as the SPI200 continued on with the day session strength and rallied in the overnight session.

ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEDT)

CNY Manufacturing PMI 11am

AUD Private Sector Credit 11:30am

GBP Current Account and Final GDP 4pm

EUR German Unemployment Change 5:55pm

EUR CPI Flash Estimate 7pm

USD ADP Non-farm Employment Change 10:15pm

USD Chicago PMI 11:45pm

USD Pending Home Sales 12am

USD Crude Oil Inventories 12:30am

SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH