The Morning Jumpstart Macro View


  • SPI200 (Sept) overnight futures up 22 pts to 7335
  • SP500 up 44.31 pts to 4411.79
  • NASDAQ Composite up 152.39 pts to 14836.99
  • Dow Jones up 238.20 pts to 35061.55
  • FTSE100 up 59.28 pts to 7027.58
  • DAX30 up 154.75 pts to 15669.29
  • GOLD futures US session (Aug) down $3.30 to $1802.10 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US session (Comex Sept) up $0.1178 to $4.4553 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Sept) up $0.16 to $72.07 a barrel
  • CRB Index up 0.26 pts to 216.60
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.7366
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1771
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.3748
  • USDJPY trading at 110.5500
  • USD Index US Session (ICE Sep) up 0.082 to 92.912

US indexes had another strong session to end the week on a very positive note with major indexes pushing up into new all time highs. Tech stocks led the market higher as traders await earnings while the DOW cracked the 35,000 level for the first time ever. Traders will be awaiting earnings from FAANGs stocks and are obviously expecting some strong results coupled with upbeat outlooks. Risk appetite remains high as traders continue to pile into shares after last weeks hiccup as the 10-year bond price floundered to end relatively unchanged after an earlier selloff. Traders will also be looking ahead to the Feds two day policy meeting for further direction on stimulus. The number of coronavirus cases have risen in the US since the Fed dropped a reference to the virus as a weight on the economy so they may again highlight this as a drag on growth pointing to extended support. The DOW closed up 0.68% while the broader SP500 ended up 1.01% and the Nasdaq closed up 1.04% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes headed higher to end the week, on the back of some positive economic data and optimism for the earnings season. Traders also remain bullish thanks to continued support from Fed Reserves after the ECB pledged more cash to keep that ball rolling. Traders brushed aside rising virus cases which could hamper the economic recovery which begs the question…what happens when the tap is turned off and Feds are no longer reaching into their collective pockets sending traders into a ‘stimulus cold turkey’?!

The USD Index edged higher to add to the previous sessions gains after the spike lower was rejected by bulls. The action was heavy though showing concern from bulls as buyers may be getting tired. Price found some resistance at 93.010 which may cap the action today. The dollar is finding some support through earnings and the risk on sentiment into shares but is heavy thanks to the decline in bond yields of late. The EURUSD brushed aside some positive data and held down around recent lows as the USD grinded higher. Sellers were stepping into the action to cap the buying pressure at 1.1780 which bulls will need to break today to keep price above 1.1760 support. Expecting to see a flush of 1.1780 today and price to work its way higher but ultimately remain in the recent range. The GBPUSD was well contained as bulls took their foot off the gas and locked in some minor gains. Price contracted off the 1.3780 level to flush out some late buyers but we do expect that the trend up will extend today with a push above 1.3787. The AUDUSD was a bit of a basket case with choppy price action right from the start of the Asian session into the US close. Buyers held their ground above 0.7360 but could not push up through 0.7390 to add to recent gains even with the risk on sentiment into shares. Price looks like it wants to retest the lows towards 0.7300 but if the 0.7387 level breaks today, up we go. The USDJPY extended on the recent gains once the 110.400 level was cleared early in European trade. Price looks to again be consolidating the gains which points to an extension on the rally today through 110.600.

SPOT GOLD again flushed recent lows into the 1796 area before recovering into the US close. The action continues to be pressured lower but bulls are not willing to give up just yet and are still defending the 1790/1800 zone. Price has now spent a lot of time contracting off 1830 holding minor lower highs which we still expect will lead to a new leg higher…but still see that buyers have some work to do. Any push back above 1810 should drag in some more bulls for a leg up. Crude Oil managed to edge its way up through the 72.00 area after consolidating the recent rally off 66.50. Bulls remain in charge and will be looking to extend on the gains today with a push to 73/73.50. The minor anchor to the move up is at 71.40 for now so as long as this level holds…buyers will jump support the action. Copper played out nicely to meet our expectations as price ramped up and out of the recent consolidation phase. Buyers lifted price up and through 4.3985 which led to a spike into the US close. Its clear now what bulls are expecting but price is extended in the short term so may need to flush out some late buyers on a pullback before another leg up.

Cryptocurrencies were contained into the US close and managed to add to recent gains over the weekend. Bitcoin is currently trading at $34541.7 up 2.12% while Ethereum is at $2160.02 up 0.38% and Ripple is at $0.60141 down 0.86%.

The ASX200 continued higher Friday to brush aside early negativity and be within striking distance of new all time highs which we expect to see hit on the open today. The Index ended the session up 8 points to 7394.4 with the IT, Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary sectors supporting the action while Gold and Energy stocks moved lower and gave up some of the previous sessions gains. Rising stocks outnumbered declining ones by 739 to 603 and 416 ended unchanged.

The ASX200 is expected to open up 25 points as the SPI200 pushes to new highs on another strong US session.


JPY Flash Manufacturing PMI 10:30am

EUR German Ifo Business Climate 6pm

GBP MPC Member Vlieghe Speaks 9pm

USD New Home Sales 12am