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OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR THURSDAY 4/02/21 (as at 8am AEDT)
- SPI200 (Mar) overnight futures down 23 pts to 6754
- SP500 up 8.13 pts to 3834.44
- NASDAQ down 2.23 pts to 13,610.54
- Dow Jones up 36.12 pts to 30,723.60
- FTSE100 down 8.83 pts to 6507.82
- DAX30 up 98.47 pts to 13,933.63
- GOLD futures US session (Feb) up $1.00 to $1831.50 an ounce
- COPPER futures US session (Comex Mar) up $0.0380 to $3.5625 a pound
- OIL futures US Session (Nymex Mar) up $1.08 to $55.84 a barrel
- CRB Index up 1.03 pts to 179.05
- AUDUSD trading at 0.7623
- EURUSD trading at 1.2034
- GBPUSD trading at 1.3636
- USDJPY trading at 105.0300
- USD Index US Session (ICE Mar) up 0.085 to 91.110
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US indexes bounced back from some early weakness after buyers locked in some recent gains on the open. The fear around the social media driven selloff has abated while the heavy hand of the SEC have decided to hunt for fraud. In what seems an attempt to squash it from hurting funds again, the SEC is going over trading data to assess whether the social media posts were part of a manipulative effort to drive up share prices. Our guess is that they will find something to put a halt to further ‘pumping’ efforts to protect their friendly hedge funds. Also supporting bulls was hopes that stimulus will be sooner rather than later as the Senate took steps to allow Democrats to pass President Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion aid bill without Republican support. The DOW closed up 0.12% while the broader SP500 ended up 0.21% and the Nasdaq closed down 0.02% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes continued to be positive and rally on recovery hopes although the FTSE was weighed down by GlaxoSmithKline after it warned of a bigger than expected fall in 2021 earnings. Better than expected earnings helped to support the rest of the European market as the DAX ended the session near highs.
The USD Index pushed back up to recent highs around 91.300 as the pressure continues on sellers ahead of any stimulus bill approval. Resistance is continuing to hold for now as buyers lock in some gains and look for clues as to the next move. With payrolls due out Friday night in the US, traders may be waiting to see how employment has been affected by the surge in covid cases and whether the data will trigger a move back lower in the Dollar due to ‘easy money’. The EURUSD hovered around lows as traders continue to assess the perceived US advantages on vaccines and economic growth as apposed to the EU. Traders were happy to pressure prices lower although buyers stepped in for support around the 1.2000 area. We expect to see this area hold into the US payroll data release. The GBPUSD sellers continued to pressure price as the USD hovers around highs. Buyers were happy though to provide support around the 1.3615 area and we would expect this level to hold for now. If the level breaks, then expect to see a long squeeze down to 1.3500. If price breaks back above 1.3660, then expect to see a grind higher although many traders will be eagerly awaiting US data for the next dollar moves. The AUDUSD lifted off the 0.7580 area which were the lows from the previous US session. Price then found itself locked in a tight range being capped at 0.7625. We do expect that price will grind down today although see that buyers and sellers are locked at a point of agreement so expect some action soon, potentially a squeeze of recent shorts. The USDJPY found itself also locked in a narrow range as sellers hold back and await further direction from the USD. Price seems to have run out of steam into the 105.150 area so we will be watching to see if lower highs can pressure buyers back out of the action for a move lower.
SPOT GOLD is showing no love for bulls as price continues to weigh heavy on the 1830 area hinting at a break below to test lower levels. Longer term, price action seems set to move to lower levels and break any hopes that bulls may have for a rally. Crude Oil added to gains to continue the push higher out through the top end of the resistance zone. Price spent a lot of time consolidating below the level so we expect the momentum up to continue especially after inventory data showed a weaker than expected number adding to the supply concerns. Copper fared better overnight as price pushed up out of the support zone around 3.5000/3.5325. We expect that bulls are trying to weather the USD strength and will be watching for any signs of weakness into the Dollar to start a new leg higher and squeeze out recent sellers.
Cryptocurrencies generally edged their way higher to add to previous gains as the sentiment remains buoyant. Bitcoin is currently trading around $37074.3 up 3.49% while Ethereum is at $1633.97 up 6.63% and Ripple had a good session and is at $0.38729 up 5.73%.
The ASX200 added to the previous few sessions gains with another solid day to end up 62 points to 6824.6. The A-Reits, Telecoms and Financials sectors led the charge higher while Metals and Mining and Gold took at hit to end in the red. Rising stocks outnumbered declining ones by 845 to 512 and 357 ended unchanged.
The ASX200 is expected to open down 20 points as overnight markets take a breather.
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ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEDT)
AUD Trade Balance 11:30am
EUR Retail Sales 9pm
GBP Official Bank Rate and Asset Purchase Facility 11pm
GBP BOE Gov Bailey Speaks Tentative
USD Unemployment Claims 12:30am
USD Factory Orders 2am
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SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH
