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OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR MONDAY 11/01/21
- SPI200 (Mar) overnight futures up 7 pts to 6704
- SP500 up 20.89 pts to 3824.68
- NASDAQ up 134.50 pts to 13,201.98
- Dow Jones up 56.84 pts to 31,097.97
- FTSE100 up 16.30 pts to 6873.26
- DAX30 up 81.29 pts to 14,049.53
- GOLD futures US session (Feb) down $63.70 to $1849.90 an ounce
- COPPER futures US session (Comex Mar) down $0.0028 to $3.6932 a pound
- OIL futures US Session (Nymex Feb) up $1.41 to $52.24 a barrel
- CRB Index up 1.03 pts to 173.35
- AUDUSD trading at 0.7756
- EURUSD trading at 1.2218
- GBPUSD trading at 1.3567
- USDJPY trading at 103.9400
- USD Index US Session (ICE Mar) up 0.232 to 90.023
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US indexes ended the first week for the new year on a positive note as buyers continued the march higher and supported prices into new all time highs. Employment data came out weaker than expected as the US did not add any new jobs as expected but actually declined for the first time in eight months which supports the need for stimulus as coronavirus numbers soar. Biden said that Americans need more help to get through the Pandemic and that he will deliver aid costing ‘trillions’ of dollars sometime this week potentially Thursday…therefore we expect to see buyers support the action until then. The DOW closed up 0.18% while the broader SP500 ended up 0.55% and the Nasdaq closed up 1.03% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes rallied with the FTSE looking set to play catch-up and make a run for its all time highs. Indexes ended the week on solid footing to cap off their strongest weekly gains since November.
The USD Index rallied after the employment data as rising US Bond yields continued to see the unwinding of bearish bets on the dollar with weakness was already factored into the price. Longer term, the weak employment data should keep a lid on the rally as more dollars will flood the market on eventual stimulus although focus will be on inflation and yields as traders expect more spending from the Biden government. The EURUSD lost ground on the dollar rally and as traders locked in some gains from the recent rally. Price has pushed down below some key support levels taking out 1.2250 so we are now on watch for a bigger unwind of buyers if the USD does start to show more signs of a base holding in the near term. The GBPUSD continues to find pressure although it is toying with the 1.3542 support zone which is still holding. Price still looks tentative to the upside so any further USD appreciation will trigger a flood of stop losses hit below the support level. The AUDUSD continued to see some heat come out of the action on the dollar rally although was supported by the continued risk on sentiment into the share market. Price is also toying with support around 0.7732 which is holding for now. A break of the level may see some buyers exit and a deeper correction lower to 0.7660 be the play while still holding the longer term uptrend. The USDJPY saw some upside pressure on the dollar rally although sellers were actively soaking up the buying pressure. Price chopped around the 103.900 area testing up to 104.100 before settling lower into the close. Expect to see further chop until the USD index pushes convincingly up above 90.000.
SPOT GOLD saw a big stick be taken to the bulls as price fell over on the continued risk on into the share market and rally into the USD. Bulls will need to put in a higher low soon and hold above 1820 otherwise a break below 1800 is on the cards. Aussie gold also took a beating as price pushed and closed below 2407 which will see a rough day for local gold miners. Crude Oil had a strong session as price held up above the 50.50 area and cleared the zone into the close. Price will need to take a breather as it is extended but we expect to see continuation potentially to 62 over the longer term. Copper saw a flush into support into the US open as the USD rallied but buyers were able to soak up the pressure and lift price back up into the close. Price is showing signs of ranging in the short term as buyers take some risk off the table into highs and potential resistance around 3.750.
Cryptocurrencies hold gains as Bitcoin extended up through 40,000 into the US open but saw some profit taking over the weekend. Bulls will be watching to see if the flush lower will be met with more buying again to keep the rally ticking along. Bitcoin is currently trading at $38112 down 6.94% while Ethereum is at $1269.14 down 1.44% and Ripple is at $0.31470 down 6.59%.
The ASX200 ended the week with another solid session to close out the day up 45.9 points to 6757.9. The IT sector led the charge with Consumer Discretionary and Energy not far behind while Gold had a rough session and will see another red day today. Rising stocks outnumbered declining ones by 723 to 584 and 364 ended unchanged.
The ASX200 is expected to open up 5 points and see some bullish action if the ASX can open up and push through 6760.
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ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEDT)
AUD Retail Sales 11:30am
CNY CPI and PPI Data 12:30pm
GBP MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks 1am
EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks 1:40am
USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks 4am
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SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH
