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OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR MONDAY 15/02/21
- SPI200 (Mar) overnight futures up 37 pts to 6780
- SP500 up 18.45 pts to 3934.83
- NASDAQ up 69.70 pts to 14,095.47
- Dow Jones up 27.70 pts to 31,458.40
- FTSE100 up 61.07 pts to 6589.79
- DAX30 up 8.98 pts to 14,049.89
- GOLD futures US session (Feb) down $1.70 to $1823.20 an ounce
- COPPER futures US session (Comex Mar) up $0.0277 to $3.7992 a pound
- OIL futures US Session (Nymex Mar) up $1.23 to $59.47 a barrel
- CRB Index up 1.64 pts to 185.29
- AUDUSD trading at 0.7761
- EURUSD trading at 1.2120
- GBPUSD trading at 1.3849
- USDJPY trading at 104.9400
- USD Index US Session (ICE Mar) up 0.012 to 90.425
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US indexes were generally flat until the last half hour of trade where there was a flurry of buying into the close. The Nasdaq and SP500 pushed into new all time closing highs while the DOW lagged. US Bond yields also rose as traders may have closed long positions into the long weekend although inflation expectations are gathering steam with all the money sloshing around in the system. As businesses re-open and more vaccinations are delivered, expectations increase for a faster recovery just over the horizon although this will bring inflation which we expect will be a cap for the over extended market. Biden continues to press for the aid package that continues to support the buying pressure as the energy, financial and materials sectors led the way Friday. The DOW closed up 0.09% while the broader SP500 ended up 0.47% and the Nasdaq closed up 0.50% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes also reversed early weakness to rally into the close being supported by some solid earnings reports. Many analysts are expecting growth in earnings this year being driven by stimulus-induced liquidity.
The USD Index ended the session slightly higher as price fell from its highs into the close as share markets recovered from earlier losses and spiked in the dying minutes. The dollar found some support from traders consolidating gains from other currencies into the long weekend. The dollar does not seem to have much near term support as traders are not worried about safe havens at this stage with the Fed on hold indefinitely and remain risk on…which means keep buying shares. There are two major views on the USD…first is that the stimulus will support the pace of the recovery relative to other countries while….second is that many believe it will support a global reflation narrative and a continued move to riskier assets at the dollars expense ie/ it will be a funding currency. The EURUSD was under pressure until the start of the US session where bulls spiked price back above the 1.2111 area. If the dollar continues to find pressure then the Euro should hold the level although we expect that the action will be muted with Hong Kong closed and also the US tonight. The GBPUSD also lifted thanks to the USD, to squeeze out recent sellers and push price back to highs around 1.3865. There was some minor squaring up from buyers into the close so the action to the upside may be limited today. If we see a flush of the 1.3865 level today, then we may see a move lower to further pressure buyers from the US session Friday. The AUDUSD was also ramped up on the US open to trade back into the 0.7765 zone. Support is down at 0.7720 which may be the level to support a push up to new highs through 0.7820 in the short term much to the dismay of the RBA. The USDJPY lifted during the European session to squeeze out some sellers before price fell away from highs. There is some minor support coming in around 104.900 and then potentially down at 104.820. We will be watching the reaction of buyers into the USDJPY to see the general sentiment into the USD.
SPOT GOLD found some buyers into the 1810 area to stem the slide from the European and Asian sessions. Bulls are just reacting to the moves in the USD for now and will need to hold the 1810 lows to drag in more buyers for a run back up to the 1840 area. If the highs around 1830 hold today, there may be more pressure into gold for a move below 1810. Crude Oil sucked in some sellers and spat them straight back out as price spiked hard up through highs around 58.90. Bulls held the gains into the close on expectations of a faster recovery. We expect to see the 60 area tested soon but will be watching for a reaction from sellers and buyers locking in some gains as price is extended in the short term. Copper also sucked in some bears early with a move below 3.7500. Sellers jumped into the action on the stop run only to be disappointed on a bounce back and move straight back up through highs. Expect the push through the highs to continue especially after the flush lower.
Cryptocurrencies were largely sideways in US trade although gain some ground over the weekend as crypto bulls had more time on their hands. The Bitcoin rally is making the rounds in news outlets so expect more late comers to support price. Bitcoin is currently trading at $48962.4 up 4.29% while Ethereum is at $1821.71 up 1.16% and Ripple is at $0.60580 down 1.73%.
The ASX200 came under pressure from the open and the selling was a grind right into the close. The index ended down 43.4 points to 6806.7 to cap off a fairly frustrating week for traders. The Gold sector led the charge lower being followed by Energy and Resources while Telecom Services was the only sector to end with some gains. Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 784 to 549 and 371 ended unchanged.
The ASX200 is expected to open up 35 points after the SPI200 made back the days losses in the overnight session. The US is close tonight for Washington Day holiday.
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ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEDT)
CNY Bank Holiday
JPY Revised Industrial Production 3:30pm
EUR Industrial Production and Trade Balance 9pm
USD Bank Holiday Washington Day
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SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH
