–
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR MONDAY 22/02/21
- SPI200 (Mar) overnight futures down 11 pts to 6721
- SP500 down 7.26 pts to 3906.71
- NASDAQ up 9.11 pts to 13874.46
- Dow Jones up 0.98 pts to 31494.32
- FTSE100 up 6.87 pts to 6624.02
- DAX30 up 106.30 pts to 13993.23
- GOLD futures US session (Feb) up $4.30 to $1777.70 an ounce
- COPPER futures US session (Comex May) up $0.1660 to $4.0670 a pound
- OIL futures US Session (Nymex Mar) down $1.28 to $59.24 a barrel
- CRB Index down 0.05 pts to 188.62
- AUDUSD trading at 0.7869
- EURUSD trading at 1.2119
- GBPUSD trading at 1.4016
- USDJPY trading at 105.4500
- USD Index US Session (ICE Mar) down 0.255 to 90.345
–
US indexes opened stronger taking their lead from Europe, before sellers stepped in to push prices lower into the close. Many are re-assessing their risk exposures intraday although the price action suggests another pullback on a loss of momentum rather than a turn lower. Traders will be watching inflationary numbers closely but will also know that the markets are flooded with 0% central bank funds and the place to be for yield remains the equity market. The DOW closed up 0.01% while the broader SP500 ended down 0.19% and the Nasdaq closed up 0.07% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes made back some of the previous sessions losses with the action led by the DAX while the FTSE lagged on a slump in retail sales for January. The action was supported by some stronger than expected earnings but the US failed to follow on with the Enthusiasm so we may see a weak open tonight. Current account data showed some good signs that trade is picking up in the region as the surplus widened for December.
The USD Index came under pressure during European trade as any safe haven appeal was pushed aside. As it looks more likely that the stimulus package will come through, traders are pressing price lower. We expect to see major support continue to hold and the dollar to be more susceptible to range bound action as much is already factored into price. If the 90.000 zone can not hold, then a push lower to test the 89.220 area is on the cards where we would expect to see a good reaction higher from buyers. A lot will depend also on how traders view the US economy compared to others and expectations for inflation therefore higher rates down the track. The EURUSD benefited from the fall into the USD although price remains heavy on a daily basis up into the 1.2180 zone. In the near term price will have to contend with minor resistance at 1.2145 where it failed in the US session Friday. If the USD shows any sign of strength then expect to see an unwind of buyers into the Euro from the recent leg up off 1.2030. The GBPUSD goes from strength to strength on any weakness into the USD. Price is now paused to hold another higher low and is taking its cue from any risk on sentiment into markets. Buyers look intent for now to continue the charge higher to 1.4300 on expectations that Britains aggressive vaccine program is taking hold and will lift the economy out of the doldrums. The AUDUSD was really all one way action just after the ASX close. Bulls come out firing into the start of the European session to push price straight up and through resistance around 0.7815. The currency benefited from a risk on move and as commodity prices were supported by the weakness into the USD. The USDJPY continued to edge its way down off 106.000 as the USD pressured the pair lower. We may see a reaction from buyers to provide support around 105.175 but will need to see some buyers stepping into the USD to hold above the 90.000 area.
SPOT GOLD is still under the control of bears as price remains in a near term downtrend. Price did find some intraday buying as the dollar moved down. We expect to see a flush higher as Gold bulls will be looking for new highs back above 1800 although do expect sellers to step back in to cap the action below the level. The only thing in the near term that may lift gold is a break below the 90.000 area on the USD index. Crude Oil did see some profit taking from buyers and price flush lows around 59.30. Watching to see if buyers sill step in to support price above 59 or whether we see a deeper correction through 58.00…either way price remains in a longer term uptrend. Copper smashed up through the 4.0000 mark as the USD failed and bulls reigned supreme. Expect there was a lot of stop losses triggered from short sellers who got it wrong but we do see the move up as extended and potentially set for a pullback.
Cryptocurrencies were again on the move as Bitcoin hits $1 trillion market cap and drags in mom and pop investors as everyone wants a part of the rally. Bitcoin is currently trading at $58025.2 up 1.79% while Ethereum is at $1962.82 down 1.49% and Ripple is at $0.54655 up 2.15%.
The ASX200 took a big hit Friday to end the week on a sour note. The Index was sold lower right from the open to push back below the 6800 level. The biggest losers were in the Energy sector which was followed by Resources and Metals and Mining. Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 908 to 477 and 320 ended unchanged.
The ASX200 is expected to open down 10 points after the SPI200 could not make back any of the losses from the day session into the US close.
–
ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEDT)
EUR German Ifo Business Climate 8pm
EUR German Buba Monthly Report Tentative
USD CB Leading Index 2am
–
SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH
