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OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR TUESDAY 9/03/21 (as at 8am AEDT)
- SPI200 (Mar) overnight futures up 48 pts to 6782
- SP500 down 20.72 pts to 3821.22
- NASDAQ Composite down 310.99 pts to 12609.16
- Dow Jones up 306.14 pts to 31,802.44
- FTSE100 up 88.61 pts to 6719.13
- DAX30 up 460.22 pts to 14380.91
- GOLD futures US session (April) down $20.70 to $1677.80 an ounce
- COPPER futures US session (Comex May) up $0.0027 to $4.0782 a pound
- OIL futures US Session (Nymex April) down $1.42 to $64.67 a barrel
- CRB Index down 1.17 pts to 192.28
- AUDUSD trading at 0.7644
- EURUSD trading at 1.1845
- GBPUSD trading at 1.3820
- USDJPY trading at 108.9300
- USD Index US Session (ICE Mar) up 0.443 to 92.433
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US indexes were mixed with gains led by the DOW while the Nasdaq came under pressure to continue the push lower. Traders were happy to lock in some gains into big tech while moving into sectors and stocks that are poised to benefit from the economic recovery and a wave of stimulus. Value stocks; which consists of cyclical stocks such as financials and energy; and a move away from growth stocks was again the focus. On the flip side, yields continue to go higher and bonds lower as prospects of more government spending and faster economic growth continue to stoke fears of a spike in inflation. The DOW closed up 0.97% while the broader SP500 ended down 0.54% and the Nasdaq closed down 2.41% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes gained on the back of the positive sentiment from the US session Friday. Traders are moving into economy linked sectors on hopes for a faster recovery. Banks (up 3.73%) and automakers (up 3%) were the big movers to support the action which saw the DAX ramp up 3.31% into new all time highs. Europe is also more positive on trade relations between the US and the EU which is helping support the bulls.
The USD Index had no interest in a pullback and continued the march higher on safe haven appeal. Bulls will remain in control as long as US bond yields move higher. Buyers will now be searching for resistance where they may be tempted to lock in some gains. For now the squeeze higher is continuing which will in turn pressure commodities prices and the anchor to the move up is around 92.145. The EURUSD extended on the move down and will continue to do so as long as the USD moves up. Traders will be watching for more USD to hit the market and will be eyeing coming inflationary data which may lead to further pressure on the Euro in favour of the dollar. For now the action is lower and the current leg down is being held at 1.886 with the possibility of a move down to 1.1600 if the squeeze on buyers gets out of hand. The GBPUSD was range bound and well contained compared to the Euro. Traders have their focus firmly on the vaccine rollout and recovery so are willing to support price around current levels. If price continues to hold below 1.3860, we may see some selling pressure to break the lows around 1.3800 if the USD rise continues. The AUDUSD moved lower as the higher USD pressured commodities and the appeal of the Aussie. Price is holding a lower high and looks set to move down to test the 0.7575 area as long as 0.7685 holds. The USDJPY continued the charge higher and is showing little sign yet of slowing down. The move is being exacerbated by flows out of the JPY so the next stop for bulls may be around the 110.000 even number.
SPOT GOLD again took a bit on the strength into the USD so we expect the positive action into local gold stocks to take a hit and reverse some of the gains from yesterday. Price is now down on our support zone but yet to show any sign of halting the slide so we will be watching the zone closely to see if buyers are willing to step into the action. Crude Oil gave up early gains and more as the price moved lower to pressure Fridays buying activity. The rally into the USD was too much for some bulls to handle and triggered some profit taking up at highs. We may see some buyers happy to step back into the action on the anticipation that the OPEC extension will continue to support price and continue the trend up….either way some heat needed to some out of the rally. Copper could not brush aside the dollar strength and moved lower. Price did bounce back to some extent in the European session on the positive mood in the US. If price can not make another push back up to the 4.1395 area then we may see another wave of selling and move below 4.0000.
Cryptocurrencies brushed aside a weaker Asian session to move back up with Bitcoin holding resistance while Ethereum pushed to new short term highs. Bitcoin is currently trading at $51707.7 up 3.32% while Ethereum is at $1770.71 up 7.36% and Ripple is at $0.47615 up 3.38%.
The ASX200 had a rough session to start the week as price ramped higher from the open only to fade all day and give up nearly 100pts into the close on a weak Asian session. In the end the index ended up only 28.8 points to 6739.6 with the Gold sector leading the way, followed by Metals and Mining and Materials. Rising stocks outnumbered declining ones by 738 to 583 and 362 ended unchanged.
The ASX200 is expected to open up 45/50 points after the SPI200 rallied in the US session. Traders may be tentative after yesterdays action and on the back of weaker commodities while Banks may provide some support.
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ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEDT)
JPY Final GDP 10:50am
AUD NAB Business Confidence 11:30am
EUR German Trade Balance 6pm
EUR Final Employment Change and Revised GDP 9pm
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SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH
